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TRAVEL ANDTOURISMFUTURES 469TRAVEL AND TOURISM FUTURES
For the tourism industry, the Internet is clearly the biggest
opportunity but simultaneously the biggest challenge.
Looking to the future, of course, poses many questions;
however, there are a number of general trends point-
ing in the direction of the future development of travel
and tourism. In this section five technology-related trends
will be considered: (1) the continuing speed and sophis-
tication of information technology; (2) the continuing
growth in the use and uses of information technology in
tourism; (3) the changing forms of information technol-
ogy as a medium for communication; (4) the emergence
of a new tourism consumer; and (5) the emergence of
experience as the foundation for defining tourism prod-
ucts. The following will identify and briefly discuss each
trend, focusing attention on its impact on the tourism
industry.Trend #1. The Continuing Speed and
Sophistication of Information Technology
The personal computer has only recently celebrated its
20th birthday. In a recent article inPC Magazine,the per-
sonal computer (PC) was described as one of the most
profound inventions in the history of mankind (Miller,
2002). From its inception in 1981 the development of com-
puter technology has been shown to follow Moore’s Law—
that chip density and therefore the speed of computers
will double every 18 months. Thus, computers and com-
puter technology have grown from the very “primitive”
Radio Shack TRS-80 and the IBM 4.7 MHz 64K RAM 8088
processor, an operating system called DOS, and software
called VisiCalc and Wordstar to today’s 2.5-GHz machines
with over 1 GB of RAM. Over the years, various competi-
tors have infused the market with a variety of innova-
tions focused on expanding the power of the machine and
the ability of the system to address workplace needs and
encouraging society to think/dream about what might be
in the future (Miller, 2002). As the systems grew more
sophisticated and powerful and arguably more human-
centric, the power of the network was recognized and
spurred even greater innovation. In 1990 the World Wide
Web was born, along with a new generation of innova-
tors seeking to build an information infrastructure that
could enable individuals to collaborate from distant lo-
cations. The outcome was MOSAIC and a decade of
unparalleled innovation and “build out” in information
infrastructure. This new orientation also led to the devel-
opment of a variety of computer-enabled devices, such
as cell phones and personal digital assistants, which
are now beginning to pervade human society (Norman,
1999).
A number of scholars have recently reflected on the
progress of computer technology and have concluded
that there is much to be accomplished before comput-
ers/information technologies can truly enable society to
benefit from their power. InThe Unfinished Revolution,
Dertouzos (2001) argued that “the real utility of comput-
ers, and the true value of the Information Revolution, still
lie ahead” (p. 6). He suggested that over the past 20 years
society has evolved to “fit” around computers and thatthe productivity gains from computer technology have
been “more hype than reality.” Supporting this argument,
Norman (1999) suggested that the real benefits will be
realized only when computer technology becomes more
human-centered, that is, when technology adapts to the
needs and lifestyles of human beings. They argue that in-
formation appliances — computer systems that focus on
specific tasks and are connected through the Internet or
wireless technology—are the basis of human-centric and
thus “invisible” computing. It appears that the focus of
emerging technology is on empowering the individual
within the framework of the human experience rather
than defining human behavior around the needs of com-
puter designers.
Examples of emerging technology that is beginning
to be used in the travel and tourism industry include
travel recommendation systems, virtual reality, and travel
guidance systems. A number of basic recommenda-
tion systems are available in a variety of travel-related
Web sites including Ski-europe.com, Travelocity.com, and
TIScover.com. Indeed, virtual reality and related tech-
nologies are evolving sufficiently to enable travelers to
sample/experience the destinations prior to the actual
trip. In addition, GPS-supported travel guidance systems,
which once were considered exotic, are actively marketed
for automobiles.Trend #2. Continuing Growth in the Use and
Uses of Information Technology in Tourism
The number of Internet users continues to grow world-
wide and as a result, the Internet’s potential as a marketing
medium has expanded greatly and continues to expand.
Internet revenues show a robust growth from about $7.8
billion in 1997 to a projected $34 billion in 2002 (For-
rester Research, 1999). The characteristics of the Internet
have considerably changed over the past five years. The
present Internet users have become older, considerably
less male, and relatively less educated and are more likely
to have families, more likely to live in geographic regions
corresponding to the general U.S. population distribution,
and more likely to represent a broader range of occupa-
tional categories than their predecessors.
The three leading uses of the Internet cited by all
users were information gathering, searching, and brows-
ing. Whereas male users are more likely to use the Internet
for information gathering, work, and shopping, female
users are more likely to use the Internet for searching,
browsing, and education (Pitkow, 1997). According to the
latest FIND/SVP study (1994–1997), the Internet is consid-
ered indispensable by 73% of users to describe the impact
of the Internet on their lives. An overwhelming majority
(over 87.9%) uses the Internet for personal reasons such
as e-mail and instant messaging; 76.3% search for news,
product information, educational information, or enter-
tainment (University of California, Los Angeles [UCLA],
2001). Business use was reported by 60% of all adult In-
ternet users (21.7 million users) and includes applications
such as file transfer, searching for business news, conduct-
ing business research, and shopping for business-related
goods and services. Further, these studies indicate a sub-
stantial increase in online use in terms of the average