8 Wednesday February 23 2022 | the times
News
KyivMOLDOVACRIMEA
BELARUS
UKRAINE
MARCH TO WAR?
TiraspolYelskMazyrSevastopolUkrainian-controlled
DonbasRussian military
positionsSeparatist-controlled
DonbasMultiple missile-launch systems are seen
on a road outside KyivKlimovoMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMOMMMMMOMOMMOLMMMMMMMMOMMMMMOLMMMOMOLMOLMMMMMMMMOMMMOMMMOMMOLMOMMMMOMOMMMMMMMOLMMMOLMOLMMMMMMMMMOMMMMMMMMMOMOMOMOLMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMOMMMOMOMMMMMMMOMMMOLMMMMMMMMMMOMMMMMMOLMMOMMMOMMMMMMOLMMMMMMMMMMMMMMOLMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMOMMMOLMMMMMMMMMMOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMOMOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMOMMMMMOMMMMMMMMMOLMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMOMMMMMMMOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMOOOOOOOOOOOLOLOOOOLOOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLOLOLOOOOOOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLOLOOOOOOOOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLOLOLOLOLOOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLOOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDODOVDDODODOVDOVDOVDDODDDOVDDDDDDDDDDDDDDODDDDDODDDDDDDDDDDDDDOVDDODDDDDODDODDDDDDDDDODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDODODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDODDDODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDOOOOOOVOVOOOOOOOOOVOOOOOVOOOVOVOVOOVOOOVOVOOOOOOVOOOOOOOOOOOOOOVOOVOOOVOOOOOOVOOOOOOOOOOOOOVOVOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOVVVVVVVVVVAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC
UKRA
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DonbaRussia
positiSeparSeparpar
DonbaDonononbaMultiple missile-launch systems are seen
on a road outside KyivRussian army truck carries a
self-propelled howitzer past
the village of PokrovskoyeDeaths in conflict in
separatist regions
Number of deaths 2014 to 2017Donetsk LuhanskUkrainian military
Civilians and rebels2,5,1,1511,Source: Ukrainian Museum of Military HistoryPresident Putin said yesterday that
Russia supported the territorial claims
of two Kremlin-backed breakaway
regions in eastern Ukraine, and issued a
series of explosive demands to Kyiv.
Speaking at the Kremlin after Rus-
sian senators gave the green light to the
deployment of Russian troops in
Ukraine, Putin said that the territory of
the rebel republics included the entire
Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which
are mostly controlled by Kyiv.
The Russian parliament yesterday
voted unanimously to formally recog-
nise the two breakaway regions as inde-
pendent countries.
Any bid by the Russian-backed sepa-
ratists to capture major cities in the re-
gion — such as Mariupol, with a popu-
lation of 430,000 — could lead to clash-
es with Ukrainian forces armed by
Nato countries.
Shortly after Putin’s speech, Reuters
reported that a column of 100 military
vehicles carrying soldiers had been
spotted moving towards the Ukrainian
border in the direction of Kharkiv,
Ukraine’s second-biggest city.
Russia also said it was evacuating its
diplomats from Ukraine over what it
said were threats to their lives.
When challenged by a Russian jour-
nalist as to whether it was possible to
stay on the side of good while using mil-
itary force, Putin replied: “Why do you
think if you are good, you can’t use
force? Goodness implies the possibility
to defend yourself. We will proceed
from this.”
Putin said the best solution to the
Ukraine crisis would be for Kyiv to in-
dependently disavow its ambitions to
join Nato. “This would allow our west-
ern partners to save face,” he said.
The Russian leader had previously
demanded that Nato publicly renounce
a pledge that Ukraine will one day be al-
lowed to join the alliance. He suggested
that a de-escalation in tensions would
be possible if Ukraine agreed to “demil-
itarise” and recognise the Kremlin’s
The gravest east-west security crisis in
decades evokes memories of the Cuban
missile crisis of 1962. America saw
Soviet missiles on the Communist-run
island as an existential threat. It
imposed a naval blockade that brought
the world to the brink of apocalypse.
In the end, diplomacy triumphed.
The Soviet naval vessels turned back.
The Americans quietly withdrew their
nuclear-armed rockets from Turkey.
Yet the dimensions and genesis of the
crisis are quite different. It is not west-
ern weapons in Ukraine that pose an
existential threat to the Kremlin, but
western ideas: freedom, justice, sover-
eignty and security. Ukraine’s stum-
bling progress undermines the legiti-
macy of the stagnant regime in Russia.
Nor is Russia backing down. Instead
the Kremlin has brilliantly disguised its
intentions. Western decision-makers,
misled by their intelligence agencies,
focused on the horrible, but unlikely,
prospect of outright invasion and the
occupation of Kyiv.
In fact, Putin has taken bureaucratic
steps towards the dismembering of
Ukraine, boosting the Russian military
presence in the breakaway regions. But
the casualties, so far, are slender. Givenwhat we feared would happen, we feel
more relief than outrage. That is
exactly what the Kremlin wants.
The second difference with Cuba is
that the West is unwilling to act. We are
huffing and puffing but we will not blow
anyone’s house down. To see the gap
between words and deeds, consider
what might actually make a difference.
In the Cuban crisis, and the Berlin
airlift 74 years ago, the Soviet leader-
ship realised they faced a determined
adversary with an appetite for risk and
sacrifice. We do not create that
impression now. If we wanted to face
down Russia, we would speed Ukraine’s
accession to the EU and Nato. WeAbandon Nato
hopes and let
West save face,
Ukraine is told
annexation of Crimea. Both demands
are unacceptable to Kyiv.
Putin insisted that he had no plans to
resurrect the Russian or Soviet empires
and that Moscow respected the borders
of all former Soviet states. Ukraine was
an exception, he said. “It is being used
by third countries to create threats to-
wards Russia.”
His comments followed a televised
speech on Monday during which he ap-
peared to question Ukraine’s right to
exist as an independent nation. Putin
warned yesterday that Ukraine could
one day threaten Russia with nuclear
weapons, saying the former Soviet state
had the capacity to create warheads
that could reach Moscow.
Putin gave no indication of when
Russian troops would enter Ukraine or
how far they would go. “It depends on
the situation on the ground,” he said.Marc Bennetts Taganrog
6 The Russian president is using the
same strategy towards Ukraine as Ad-
olf Hitler when he invaded Poland, the
Latvian defence minister has warned.
Artis Pabriks said Putin would not
stop at Ukraine and blood would
be spilled elsewhere unless the West
immediately imposed its harshest
response, including severe sanctions.
He was speaking at Belvoir castle in
Leicestershire, at a meeting of the UK-
led Joint Expeditionary Force, a coali-
tion of “like-minded” nations, includ-
ing the Baltic states, which was brought
forward to tackle the crisis.
Pabriks said the conflict with
Ukraine was Putin’s “first step” and
there were “huge parallels” between
Russia’s behaviour towards Ukraine
and Nazi Germany’s invasion of Poland
in 1939. In response, Britain and France
declared war on Germany.
“Is there a difference between what
Russians are doing to Ukraine lately
and... what Nazis were doing to
Poland? It is the same strategy,” he said.
Kalle Laanet, Estonia’s defence min-
ister, said there was a “risk” that his
country could come under threat,
and said the West had to be prepared
for Putin’s next moves.News Ukraine crisis
Darker twist on the Cuban missile crisis
Edward Lucas would also offer massive military and
financial aid. We would impose serious
sanctions on Russian individuals and
entities, including sweeping visa-bans
and asset-freezes. We would cancel, not
just pause, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
We would start to reduce dependence
on Russian gas, oil and other resources.
None of that is likely. As things stand,
Russia has won this round, just as the
Soviet Union won in 1956 when it
crushed the Hungarian uprising, and in
1968 when it crushed the Prague spring.
The rational course for Putin is to
pocket his winnings and walk away. He
has achieved far more than any Soviet
predecessor in exposing western impo-
tence. He can also humiliate the West’s
intelligence agencies who said a full-
scale invasion was imminent.
Whereas Allied support for West
Berlin in 1948 and 1961, after the Soviets
called for the Allies’ withdrawal, stoked
western credibility, our failure to
support Ukraine has eviscerated ours.
They warned us repeatedly, begged us
for help, and were met with arrogance,
ignorance and passivity.
Edward Lucas is a writer, security
specialist and columnist for
The Times. His books include
The New Cold War: Putin’s Russia
and the Threat to the West (2008)Fidel Castro, the Cuban leader, allowed
Russia to deploy missiles on his islandPutin’s options
6 A full-scale invasion
of Ukraine is still
unlikely, though
Vladimir Putin’s
comments over the past
two days have
heightened fears that
the Russian leader is
being governed by
emotion, rather than
military logic. Any
attempt to capture Kyiv
would almost certainly
result in large numbers
of Russian casualties. It
could also foment
discontent in Russia,
where there are few
signs that ordinary
people are ready to
support a devastating
war with Ukraine.
6 A “peacekeeping”operation that resulted
in Russian troops
remaining on separatist-
held territory would
allow Russia to establish
military bases in the
Donbas, a move that
would give the Kremlin
a formidable foothold in
Ukraine. It would be
unlikely to result in
significant military
losses.
6 An operation to help
the separatists seize
more territory in the
Donbas would probably
be successful from a
military point of view,
but it would run the risk
of Russia becoming
bogged down in a
long, drawn-out conflictthat could stretch its
resources.
6 Russia has provided
covert military support
to the separatists for
the past eight years,
using mercenaries to do
the Kremlin’s dirty work,
and there is no reason
why it could not
continue to do so.
In 2014, Russian
senators approved
the use of the armed
forces in Ukraine, but
they were never
officially deployed to
the Donbas. Putin’s
increasingly harsh
rhetoric means,
however, that he is
unlikely to opt for these
tactics this time around.