PROTECTION AND WEALTH BUILDING STRATEGIES 223Syria and Egypt.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been president of Turkey since
August and was prime minister from 2003 until his election
as president. The decisive victory by Erdoğan in Turkey’s first-
ever direct presidential election last August has important
implications for the politics and economy of Turkey, but the
international implications are no less profound.
The large size of Erdoğan’s margin of victory, 13 points
ahead of the next closest candidate, and the fact that he avoid-
ed a runoff by obtaining an outright majority in the first round
of voting are both sources of strength and leave him with a
powerful mandate to pursue his pro-Sunni, pro-nationalist,
conservative, religious agenda at home and abroad. Erdoğan
will now be dealing from a position of strength, and that
strength will likely grow for years to come.
Erdoğan also serves as a beacon for a specifically Muslim
political identity, especially after the suppression of the Muslim
Brotherhood throughout the Middle East. His brand of pro-
Muslim politics may prove attractive when compared with the
secular Egyptians, conservative kingdoms in Saudi Arabia or
Jordan or the extreme radicalism of the Islamic State.
Erdoğan is now stronger at home and more influential
in the region than ever. He will be able to leverage Turkey’s
economic and geopolitical power to tip the balance in vari-
ous disputes among large powers such as the U.S., Russia and
China. With the U.S. in retreat around the world, Turkey will
emerge as the arbiter of regional disputes involving other
powerful players such as Iran and Israel.
Erdoğan’s personal star has risen, and he hopes that
Turkey’s national star will soon follow. Turkish power is on the
rise. The danger is that Erdoğan’s power rests on the polariza-
tion of Turkish society. Erdoğan’s victory depended in part on
his polarizing rhetoric and emphasis on ethnicity.
If this polarization goes too far, Erdoğan’s prospective gains