274 THE BiG DROP
Bayes’ theorem
application of, to bond defaults, 86
application of, to financial analysis, 80
beggar-thy-neighbor policies. See cur-
rency wars
behavioral psychology, application of,
to the coming oil bust, 87
Bernanke, Ben
on gold prices, 148
unprecedented monetary ease pur-
sued by, 27
biometric monitoring, role of, in dysto-
pian future, 1–2
Bitcoin. See also crypto-currencies
risks of owning, 228–32
use by terrorists of, 228–29
bond funds, hidden dangers in, 94
borrowing money
extensive, in the carry trade, 111
as imperfect strategy for protection
against inflation or hyperinflation,
62, 251
Bretton Woods Conference, internation-
al monetary system devised at, 20
Bretton Woods system, mechanisms of
the, 20
bubbles
characteristics of, 73
in China, 73–77
investor psychology related to, 73
Buffett, Warren, investment strategy of,
45, 58, 61–62, 246
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), mea-
surement of unemployment by, 26
Burj Khalifa, as the world’s tallest
building, 226–27
business cycles, Federal Reserve’s role
in generating, 15C
caliphate, Islamic State as contemporary
example of, 101
Cantillon effects, 45–46
Cantillon, Richard
on Cantillon effects, 45
on money illusion, 42capital flight. in China, 76
capital formation
inflation’s effect of impairing, 65–66
regime uncertainty as impairing, 243
carry trade, 111
emerging markets as a form of the,
219–20
cash
abolition of, in dystopian future, 4
iShares 1–3 Year Treasury Bond
ETF as ultimate form of, in finan-
cial markets, 212–13
in portfolio planning in a deflation-
ary environment, 34–35, 58–59,
62, 107
U.S. Treasury bills and one-year
notes as highest-quality form of, 252
usefulness of, in case the ATMs are
shut down, 247
Center on Sanctions and Illicit Finance
(CSIF)
digital warfare analyzed by, 208
launch of, 205
central bank independence, the myth
of, 238–39
central bankers. See also central banks
Bank for International Settlements as
meetinghouse for, 9–10
uncertainty among, 107–108,198–99,
255
central banks
constraint on, of political failure to
provide structural reform, 238
deflation vs. inflation in the eyes of,
63–64, 215–16
gold manipulation for, by Bank for
International Settlements, 10
money illusion used by, 42
reputational crediility squandered
by, 139
waning trust in, 142
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA),
imperfect information in intelligence
work by, 80–82
China
400 years of decline in, 75–76
capital flight from, 76