EDITOR’S PROOF
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184Globalization has meant that 2 billion people have joined the world’s labor force
since 1989. It is no surprise that this labor shock has meant that global inequality
has decreased but that income inequality in all developed economies has increased.
Deregulation in the US has contributed to the expansion of global trade and invest-
ment, but has also meant that the global market became unstable. In 2006 the US
balance of payments deficit reached $750 billion, while its trade deficit with China
reached $130 billion for the first six months of 2011. As a result, China currently has
foreign exchange reserves of $3.2 trillion and holds about $1 trillion in US Treasury
and government agency bonds.^6 Japan also has about $800 billion. Cheap money
led to a significant increase in household debt in the US, rising from about 65 % of
GDP in 1995 to 100 % of GDP in 2009.
In a deregulated world, and in a context of moral hazard, financial institutions
competed for profits, speculating in risky assets, particularly derivatives based on
the housing market. The presumption that the market could regulate itself proved
unfounded, just as Minsky (1986) has argued. This imbalance can lead to the kind
of instability that Keynes feared.
If I may be allowed to appropriate the term speculation for the activity of
forecasting the psychology of the market, and the term enterprise for the ac-
tivity of forecasting the prospective yield of assets over their whole life, it is
by no means always the case that speculation predominates over enterprise.
As the organization of investment markets improves, the risk of the predomi-
nance of speculation does, however, increase... Speculators may do no harm
as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when
enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. (Keynes 1936 :
158–159)Lehman Brothers did file for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008, and the bubble
burst. The market crash has left the US with a public debt of about $15 trillion.
US household net worth fell from about $70 trillion in 2007 to about $50 trillion
in 2009.^7 Even in the year from June 2010 to 2011 house values fell by $1 trillion,
and about 15 million homeowners find themselves owing more than their homes are
worth.
The contagion spread to Europe, where the debt overhang meant that many states
found themselves at risk of default. The EU was forced to put together the European
Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) rescue package ofe750 billion, able to issue bonds
for up toe440 billion for support to Euro member states in difficulty, including
Greece, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain and Portugal.^8 European banks were also at
risk, holding over $2 trillion in risky sovereign debt.(^6) Alpert et al. (2011) note that China saves about 50 % of GDP, invests about 15 % and consumes
only about 35 %.
(^7) Alpert et al. (2011).
(^8) The European levels of total public debt/GDP currently are: Greece 166 %, Italy 121 %, Ireland
109 %, Portugal 106 %, Belgium 96 %, Germany 83 %, France 87 %, Britain 80 %, Spain 56 %.