1 Advances in Political Economy - Department of Political Science

EDITOR’S PROOF

236 G. Serra

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Lemma 5The expected utility ofR’s leadership for each value ofmRis

EURE(mR=elite)=−(XRE−XL)πL( 1 −πRI)

−(XRE− 0 )

[

πLπRI+( 1 −πRI)

]

−(XRE−XRE)( 1 −πL)πRI

EURE(mR=primary)=−(XRE−XL)πL

(

1 −(πRI+S)

)

−(XRE− 0 )

[

πL(πRI+S)+( 1 −πL)

(

1 −(πRI+S)

)]

−|XRE−XRM|( 1 −πL)(πRI+S)

Armed with these results, the leadership in partyRcan measure the conse-

quences of choosing one CSM over the other.

7 The Optimal Selection of a CSM

The leadership in partyR will choose the optimal rule mR by comparing

EURE(mR=elite)andEURE(mR=primary). It will choose the CSM that yields

the highest expected utility, and if it is indifferent, I assume that it will choose

an elite selection. A primary will be adopted if and only ifEURE(mR=elite)<

EURE(mR=primary). That condition leads to the following result, recalling that

dR≡|XRM−XRE|.

Theorem 3The leadership of partyRwill adopt a primary election if and only if

dR<T

withT≡S[X(RE 1 −(π^1 −L)(ππL)RI−+XS)LπL].

The intuition behind this result is thatR’s leadership will delegate the nomination

if and only if the RAF’s ideology is close enough to its own. In other words, inter-

nal party democratization will only ensue from enough elite-mass congruence. How

close do primary voters need to be to the party elite? It depends on a certain thresh-

old,T, introduced in the theorem. If the preferences of the elite and the mass of party

Rare so incongruent thatT≤dRthen the leadership will not adopt a primary elec-

tion. This could happen for two reasons. On one hand, the RAF could be so far on

the right of the leadership thatXRE+T≤XRM. In that case the leadership will not

adopt a primary election because the primary voters are tooextremist. On the other

hand, the RAF could be so far on the left of the leadership thatXRM≤XRE−T.In

that case the leadership will not adopt a primary election because the primary voters

are toocentrist.

As it turns out, the first reason (that primary voters might be too extreme) is fre-

quently found in some way or another in scholarly comments about primary elec-

tions. Yet the second reason (that primary voters might be too moderate) is equally