David and Goliath: Underdogs, Misfits, and the Art of Battling Giants

have published in those elite journals.
To figure out the best hiring strategy,
then, Conley and Önder argue that all we
have to do is compare the number of
papers published by Big Fish in Little
Ponds with the number published by
Little Fish in Big Ponds. So what did
they find? That the best students from
mediocre schools were almost always a
better bet than good students from the
very best schools.
I realize that this is a deeply
counterintuitive fact. The idea that it
might not be a good idea for universities
to hire from Harvard and MIT seems
crazy. But Conley and Önder’s analysis
is hard to refute.
Let’s start with the top economics