948 Monetary Policy, Beliefs, Unemployment and Inflation
Nickell, S. and B. Bell (1995) The collapse in demand for the unskilled and unemployment
across the OECD.Oxford Review of Economic Policy 11 , 40–62.
Nordhaus, W. (2007) Who’s afraid of a big oil shock?Brookings Panel on Economic Activity,
special edition, September.
Orphanides, A. (2001) Monetary rules based on real time data.American Economic Review 91 ,
964–85.
Orphanides, A. (2002) Monetary policy rules and the great inflation.American Economic
Review,Papers and Proceedings, 92 , 115–20.
Orphanides, A. and J.C. Williams (2006) Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge.
Working Paper 2006-14. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Oswald, A.J. (1997) The missing piece of the unemployment puzzle. Inaugural Lecture,
Warwick University.
Perron, P. (2006) Dealing with structural breaks. In T.C. Mills and K. Patterson (eds.),Palgrave
Handbook of Econometrics. Volume 1:Econometric Theory.Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
Pesaran, M.H. and Y. Shin (2002) Long run structural modelling.Econometric Reviews 21 ,
49–87.
Primiceri, G.E. (2005) Why inflation rose and fell: policymakers’ beliefs and US postwar
stabilisation policy. Unpublished manuscript, Department of Economics, Northwestern
University, Evanston.
Rudd, J. and K. Whelan (2005) New tests of the New Keynesian Phillips curve.Journal of
Monetary Economics 52 , 1167–81.
Sargent, T.J. (1999)The Conquest of American Inflation. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Sargent, T.J., N. Williams and T. Zha (2004) Shocks and government beliefs: the rise and fall
of American inflation. Working Paper 10764. Cambridge, Mass.: NBER.
Sims, C. and T. Zha (2006) Were there regime switches in US monetary policy?American
Economic Review 96 , 54–81.
Stock, J.H. and M.W. Watson (2002) Has the business cycle changed and why? In M. Gertler
and K. Rogoff (eds.),NBER Macroeconomics Annual.Cambridge, Mass.: NBER.
Surico, P. (2006) Monetary Policy Shifts and Inflation Dynamics. In D. Cobham (ed.),Travails
of the Eurozone: Economic Policy and Economic Development, pp. 42–62. Basingstoke: Palgrave
Macmillan.
Svensson, L.O. (2000) Open-economy inflation targeting.Journal of International Economics
50 , 155–83.
Tetlow, R. and P. von zur Muehlen (2001) Avoiding Nash inflation: Bayesian and robust
responses to model uncertainty. Unpublished manuscript, Federal Reserve System, Wash-
ington, DC.
Wickens, M. and R. Motto (2001) Estimating shocks and impulse response functions.Journal
of Applied Econometrics 16 , pp. 371–87.