The Mathematics of Arbitrage

(Tina Meador) #1
9.4 Proof of the Main Theorem 173

and we therefore obtain


Q


[


(Rn·A)Tn,i−(Rn·A)Tn,i− 1 ≥α−

2 λ
n

]


>β−n−^2

fori=1,...,knand alln≥N.
Unfortunately we do not know thatRnis 1-admissible or even admissible.
A final stopping time argument and some estimates will allow us to control
the “admissibility” ofRn.ThejumpsofRn·Sare part of the jumps ofLn·S
and hence


∆(Rn·S)≥∆(Ln·S)≥−

n+1
n^2

≥−


2


n

.


An upper bound for (Rn·M) is obtained by



∥(Rn·M)Tn,k
n


∥^2


L^2 (Q)≤



∥(Ln·M)Tn,k
n


∥^2


L^2 (Q)


∑kn

i=1

‖fn,i‖^2 L (^2) (Q).
Forn≥Nthis is smaller than 4kn. Doob’s maximal inequality applied on
theL^2 (Q)-martingale (Rn·M)Tn,knyields



∥supt≥ 0 |(R
n·M)t|






L^2 (Q)

≤ 4



kn.

This inequality will show thatRn·Swill not become too negative on big
sets. First note that we may estimate (Rn·S)frombelowbyRn·M. Indeed,
Rn·S=Rn·M+Rn·A≥Rn·MsinceRn·Ais increasing and hence positive.
The following estimates hold


Q


[


inf
t≥ 0
(Rn·S)t≤−knn−

(^14)


]


≤Q


[


sup
t≥ 0

|(Rn·M)t|≥knn−

(^14)


]


≤ 16



n
kn

by Tchebycheff’s inequality and the above estimate

≤ 64 α

1



n

.


Let nowUn =inf{t|(Rn·S)t<−knn−

(^14)
}. The preceding inequality
says thatQ[Un<∞]≤ 64 α√^1 n. We define yet another integrand: letVn=
1
knR
n 1
[[ 0,Un]].ThejumpsofV
n·Sare then bounded from below by − 2
nknand
the process (Vn·S) is therefore bounded below by−n−
(^14)
−nk^2 n. The integrands
Vnare therefore admissible and their uniform lower bound tends to zero. We
now claim that (Vn·S)∞is positive with high probability.

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