Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2019-07-29)

◼POLITICS BloombergBusinessweek July 29, 2019

thejob.AndthechallengesfacingJohnsonarethe

greatestfacedbyanincomingprimeministerin

decades.HisConservativePartydoesn’thavea

majorityinParliament.Tostayinpower,it’shadto

buythesupportofa muchsmallerparty,Northern

Ireland’sDemocraticUnionistParty.Evenso,the

governmentcanbedefeatedif onlya handfulof

Conservativesvoteagainstit.WithMayunableto

getanycontroversialmeasuresthroughParliament,

thebodyhasdonelittleformonths.

ThatmightbesurvivableforJohnson,butthere’s

stilla greatdealtodo,mostofit relatedtoBrexit.

Onthis,Parliamenthasprovedbetteratrulingout

optionsthanrulingthemin.TheEuropeanUnion,

concernedabouta returntoterrorismonthebor-

derbetweenNorthernIrelandandtheRepublicof

Ireland,insistedona “backstop”clauseinthedeal

it negotiatedwithMay,whichwouldrequirethe

Britishgovernmenttokeepitsrulesalignedwith

theEU’s.That’sunacceptabletoParliament.

TheU.K.is duetoleavetheEUonOct.31, giv-

ing Johnson roughly 100 days to persuade either

the EU to drop its insistence on a backstop or

Parliament to drop its objections. In his first

speech as prime minister, he promised a “new”

and “better” deal, but also that the U.K. would exit

the EU on time—“no ifs, no buts.”

In selling compromise, Johnson will face prob-

lems of his own making. The Brexit campaign he

fronted suited his style: big on promises, light on

detail, dismissive of problems. After the referen-

dum’s surprise victory, he hit May with volleys

of complaints from both inside and outside the

government (he quit as foreign minister in 2018),

insisting that she needed to be more aggressive in

negotiations, to believe more and demand more.

If his goal was to create a vacancy in the top job, it

worked. With Johnson arguing against her, May was

unable to convince her party that the deal she’d

negotiated was the best one available.

Many in the EU blame Johnson for Brexit—not

simply for fronting the referendum campaign but for

stoking hostility toward the EU in his days as a jour-

nalist. His stated hope is that the EU, accepting the

case that it will be happier with Britain outside, puts

its grudge aside and agrees to leave the Irish bor-

der question for another day. That would be enough

to get the rest of the deal through Parliament. A lit-

tle likelier is that Brussels agrees to some kind of

face-saving modification to the Irish section of the

agreement, which would allow Johnson to argue that

the backstop has been dropped. He’s said this option

is unacceptable—and sold as much to Parliament’s

Brexiteers—but that wouldn’t necessarily stop him

from accepting it.

One final alternative would be to walk away

from the talks with the EU. This is what many

Conservatives want Johnson to do, and he turned

their wish into a campaign promise. He argues

that the EU would back down rapidly if he were to

stand up from the table. But EU leaders say that,

whilea so-calledno-dealBrexitwouldbedamag-

ingtothem,it wouldbecatastrophictoBritain,

whichwouldfinditselfsuddenlyhavingtodeal

withitsnearestneighborandlargesttradingpart-

nerwithoutanystructuresatall.Government

economistspredictthiswouldleadtoa recession

intheU.K.

Eventryingtopursuethiscoursecouldbe

disastrousforJohnson.NotallConservativesare

wonoverbyhischarms.Manyofthosewho’ve

workedwithhimdislikehimheartily,regarding

himasuntrustworthyandreckless.Theyalsosee

tryingfora no-dealBrexitasruinoustotheirpar-

ty’sreputation.FromformerChancellorofthe

ExchequerPhilipHammondondown,thereareat

least 30 ConservativemembersofParliamentwho

aredeterminedtostopa no-dealBrexitfromhap-

pening.Astonishingly,Mayherselfhashintedshe

mightjointhem.OnJuly 18 theyflexedtheirmus-

clesforthefirsttime,passingmeasuresintendedto

allowthemtopreventsucha scenario.If Johnson

outmaneuversthem,theyhintdarkly,theymight

votetobringdowntheirowngovernmentandforce

a generalelection.

Facedwithsucha crisis,Johnsoncouldcallan

electionhimself.Hecouldevencallforanother

referendum.Bothareideashe’srejected,buthe’s

brokenpromisesinthepast.

MPswhosupporthimtakewhattheyseeas

a sophisticatedviewofallthis.Oneearlybacker

amongtheranksofambitiousministersexplained

ata drinkspartyearlierthismonththatJohnson

willbeabletopersuadehard-lineBrexitsupport-

erstoaccepta modifiedversionofMay’sdeal.The

BrexiteerswhodestroyedMay’spremiershipall

backedJohnsonfortheleadership,theminister

said,sotheyhaveanincentivetomoderatetheir

demandsandsupporthim.

Thisisn’twhattheBrexiteerssaywillhappen.

Someofthemactivelywanta no-dealBrexit.What

wouldtheydoif Johnsonaskedthemtovotefor

a modifiedversionofMay’sdeal?It wouldbeno

good,oneremarked,tobringbackthatpigwith

somelipstickonit.Johnson’sfateinthosecircum-

stances,saidanother,wouldbethesameasMay’s,

butfaster.�RobertHutton

31

FRANK AUGSTEIN/POOL/BLOOMBERG

THE BOTTOM LINE Johnson has built a career on his outrageous

personality, but getting through Brexit will require more than

affability. He faces major political hurdles as the separation nears.

◀Johnsoneatingan

icecream cone at a Tory

leadership campaign

tour in July

● Number of days

Johnson has to deliver

on Brexit promise

100