The Economist (2022-02-26) Riva

20 BriefingWarinUkraine TheEconomistFebruary26th 2022

that:“Theworldmustactimmediately.Fu-

tureofEurope&theworldisatstake.”His

predecessor,PavloKlimkin,saysUkraine

“would notgivein.” Itsbest hope,he

thinks,liesintheWeststeppingintonego-

tiateaceasefirewithoutfurtherterritorial

losses.“Thealternativedoesn'tbearthink-

ingabout.”

ThehistoricalcentreofPodyl,oneof

theoldestdistrictsofKyiv,wasmuchless

busythanusualasthedaybegan.But

tramscontinuedtooperate,andpeople

huddledaroundthetramstoptodiscuss

theevents.AlexanderVoltarnist,a27-year-

old,saidhewouldgathertogetherthe

womenofhisfamilyandtakethemhome

andthenregisterforthearmy.Hehasnev-

erfoughtbeforebutsaysheknowshowto

handlehimself.“There’snosenseinrun-

ning.AndallIwillsaytothecrazymaniac

isthathehasputhisnosewhereitisn’t

welcome.Andwewillfuckhimover.”

Anvilandhammer

Russia’sonslaughtendedalongperiodof

uncertainty,onewhichinUkrainetookthe

formofanalmosteeriecalmasthecountry

anditsleadersresolvednottopanic.There

wasnodoubtthatRussiawasbuildingup

anunprecedentedamountoffirepower

withinstrikingrange.Butthefreeavail-

ability of information about Russia’s

build-upoftroopsgatheredbyWestern

governmentsandbyopen-sourceintelli-

gencegroupswasinsharpcontrastwith

MrPutin’sopacityabouthisplans.Washe

reallyfocusedonUkraine?Oronbroader

regionalsecurityconcernsthatwouldget

takenmoreseriouslyifhethreatenedUk-

raine?Oronapieceoftheatretailoredfor

domesticconsumption?Nosatellitecould

say.Nor,itappeared,couldMrPutin’sin-

nercircle.

AspeechhegaveonMondayFebruary

21stclarifiedthings.MrPutinwasrecog-

nisingthepro-Russian“republics”ofDo-

netskandLuhanskinthetwoUkrainian

oblasts, or administrative divisions, of

whichthosecitiesaretheeponyms;hewas

alsorecognisingtheirclaimtotherestof

thetwooblasts.Indoingsohetriggereda

firstroundofsanctionsfromWesternna-

tionsandastateofemergencyinUkraine.

Butitwasthevehemencewithwhichhe

didsothatshockedcritically-mindedRus-

siansintoreassessingtheirpriorbelief

thatawarwhichtheysawasveryunlikely

toserveRussia’slong-terminterestswas,

forthatreason,averyunlikelywar.The

firstpartoftheanalysisstood;thesecond

wasthrownintodoubt.

Thatwasinpartbecauseoftheinsight

theperformanceofferedintoMrPutin’s

senseofhisownposition.Hecameacross

asisolated,aggrievedandaggressive.In

thepasthistalkofrestoringtheunityofa

Slavic, Orthodox Russian homeland

broughtlowbythecollapseoftheSoviet

Union,couldbetreatedascoverforthere-

gime’stheft,authoritarianismandfailure

todeliveronitspeople’saspirations.Now

itlookedlikeafiercefocus.Thepresident

presentedhimselfnotsomuchasanelect-

edpresidentbutasanemperorlookingfor

aplacealongsideIvantheTerrible,Peter

theGreat,CatherinetheGreatandStalin,

thegiantsinthepantheonoftransforma-

tiveRussianrulersand gatherers-inof

Russianlands.

Theseparatist“republics”whichthe

speechwasinprincipleaboutwerecreated

duringthecrisiswhichfollowedwhatis

nowknownasUkraine’s“Revolutionof

Dignity” in 2014. In November 2013

Ukraine’sparliamenthadbeenpreparing

tosignan“associationagreement”with

theeuwhichwouldhavemovedthecoun-

tryalotclosertotheunion.AtMrPutin’s

bidding,andwithfinancialinducements,

then-president Viktor Yanukovych, a

crookedthugfromDonbas,scupperedthe

deal.Peopleprotestinghisactionswere

bludgeonedbythesecurityforcesinKyiv’s

IndependenceSquare,knownasMaidan.

Farmoreprotestersthentooktheirplace

onMaidan,occupyingitformonths.

ThefollowingFebruaryviolencebroke

out;inthreedays 130 peoplewerekilled,

mostofthemprotesters.MrYanukovych

fledthecountry.Needingtoimposehim-

self,MrPutinmovedtoannexCrimea,a

peninsulaintheBlackSeathatmanyRus-

siansconsideredRussianratherthanUk-

rainian.IrregularforcesinDonbassup-

portedbyMrPutinstartedthemovements

whichwouldbecomethepro-Russian“re-

publics”inDonetskandLuhansk.

ButMrPutin’snewvision,asoutlined

inthatFebruary21stspeech,goesfarbe-

yondsupportingthepurportedrightsof

theseparatiststosplittheiroblastsoff

fromUkraine.ItrejectstheveryideaofUk-

raineasanationstate,castingitinsteadas

“aninalienablepartofourhistory,culture

andspiritualspace”sunderedfromRussia

bytheBolsheviksatthetimeoftherevolu-

tion and then bolstered withterritory

seizedfromHungary,PolandandRomania

underStalin.MrPutinassertedaRussian

claimnotjusttoDonbas,buttoagamutof

“historicRussianlands”whichincludes

theBlackSeacoastallthewaytoOdessa.

Theenemyonallsides

Ashedidsohesnarledhiscontemptfor

Ukrainians:theywereungratefulbetrayers

ofRussia’sfriendship,mindlesslyaping

foreigners.Iftheywantedtobefreeofthe

legacy of communism, he said, they

should also be free of the territories

communismhad providedthem. State

broadcastershelpfullydisplayedamapof

Ukraineinwhich,shornofthose“gifts”,its

territorywasreducedtoasmallyellow

blobsouthofKyiv.ForYuliaMostovaya,

theeditorofZerkaloNedeli,aUkrainian

newspaper,thedisplayofemotionfroma

manschooledinthecoolartsofspyingwas

striking.Watchthespeech,shesays,and

“You'llseezeroemotionswhenhetalks

aboutnatoorAmerica.Whenhetalks

aboutUkrainehebecomesconsumedwith

akindofsqueamishloathing.Hehates

everythingaboutus.”

Despite that disjuncture of tone,

though,oneoftheclearmessagesofMrPu-

tin’sspeechwasthathisenemieswereall

ofapiece.ThreateningUkraineisnotaway

tobringtheWesttothetable:itisawayto

pushitbackfromthedoorbyexpellingits

Ukrainianlackeys.Ukrainewasahostile

territoryrunbyAmericanstryingtotake

Russiadown.Ithastobeportrayedassuch

becauseRussianscanbemadetohate

Kyiv

Odessa

Black

Sea

Seaof

Azov

Dnie

per

U K R A I N E

BELARUS

POLAND

HUNGARY

SLOVAKIA

ROMANIA

MOLDOVA

R U S S I A

Crimea

Luhansk

Donetsk

Donbas

Warsaw

Kherson

Dnipro

Kharkiv

Belgorod

Mazyr

Chernihiv

Vasilkiv

Controlledby

Russian-backed

separatists

Ukrainianterritory

annexedbyRussia

150 km

Feb 24th 2022 at 11.15 GMT

Sources:Liveuamap;Rochan

Consulting;TheEconomist

Reported border crossings

Reported explosions

Selected airports

Selected military airfields

Mariupol