The Economist February 26th 2022 China 43stain from any unresolutions condemn-
ing Russia, as it did in 2014 after the annex-
ation of Crimea. And as they have done in
the past, Chinese diplomats will call for an
end to the hostilities on all sides, rather
than singling out Russian aggression. In-
deed on February 24th Ms Hua took issue
with a journalist’s use of the term “inva-
sion” to describe events in Ukraine.
The Chinese “will double down on stat-
ing, ‘We support the territorial integrity of
Ukraine’,” says Alexander Gabuev of the
Carnegie Moscow Centre, a think-tank.
“But then I don’t think they will criticise
Russia for what Russia is doing now.” Chi-
na will instead continue to rebuke Ameri-
ca. In her comments a day earlier, on the
eve of war, Ms Hua called America “the cul-
prit of current tensions surrounding Uk-
raine” and accused it of pouring oil on the
flames in an “immoral” way.
Mr Xi may feel comfortable about
showing solidarity with Mr Putin because
any Western sanctions imposed on Russia
will probably have only limited effects on
its economic relationship with China. Mr
Gabuev says he would expect China to ad-
here to the legal requirements of any West-
ern sanctions, such as not banking with
blacklisted oligarchs. Nonetheless China
will find plenty of ways to keep business
flowing. Huawei, a Chinese telecoms
giant, should be able to sell 5gtechnology
to Russia, whereas Ericsson and Nokia,
two Western competitors, may be locked
out. China’s development banks can lend
to Russian enterprises with less fear of
running afoul of financial sanctions tar-
geting commercial lending. And the two
countries have steadily reduced their reli-
ance on the dollar to settle trade, part of
Russia’s efforts to insulate itself from
American sanctions.
Western restrictions on the purchase of
oil and gas from Russia could be highly dis-
ruptive. But it is unclear whether the Biden
administration wants to take a step that
would increase energy prices and com-
pound inflation ahead of mid-term elec-
tions in November. China may also see the
suspension on February 22nd of Nord
Stream 2, a natural-gas pipeline linking
Russia and Germany, as a chance to get a
better deal in negotiations over building a
pipeline from Russia to China, to carry gas
from the same fields that supply Europe.
But there are risks to Mr Xi’s cosying up
to Mr Putin. Writing in Foreign Affairs, Jude
Blanchette and Bonny Lin of the Centre for
Strategic and International Studies, a
think-tank, argue that a “tighter Beijing-
Moscow axis would further encourage Chi-
na’s rivals to balance against it”. That in-
cludes Europe, where attitudes appear to
have hardened since February 4th. Jens
Stoltenberg, secretary-general of nato, on
February 15th described the “two authori-
tarian powers” as “operating together”.
ThisperceptiontroublesChinesean-
alysts.YangCheng ofShanghaiInterna-
tionalStudiesUniversitysaysChinawor-
riesitcouldbe“treatedasRussia’saccom-
plice”.Buthesaysthatperceptionisthe
productoftheimaginationofAmericaand
itsallies.China’soppositiontonatoex-
pansion,headds,stemsfromempathyfor
Russia,inthepressuretheybothfeelfrom
theWest.
MrYangsaysthis“innoway”means
thatChinasupportsthecurrentdevelop-
mentsinUkraine.ButtheWest’stendency
toviewChinaandRussiaastiedtogetheris
“dangerous”,hesays.“It’saself-fulfilling
prophecythatwillturntheworldintoa
dangeroussituationthatcouldbecolder
andlongerthanthecoldwar.”Covid-19Clinging to zero
H
ongkonginthepastweekhasbeen
under greater stress from covid-19
than ever before. First came the shocking
photographs of elderly patients on beds,
lined up in the cold in the car parks of over-
flowing hospitals. Then the reports of for-
eign domestic helpers—who are forced by
law to live in their employers’ houses—be-
ing abandoned to the streets after testing
positive. Next, a raft of announcements:
schools are to be closed to become testingvenues, while disused tower blocks are to
be converted into isolation centres. Having
managed to keep the virus at bay for two
years, the territory—struggling to replicate
the mainland’s “zero-covid” approach—
has been badly exposed.
The government reported more than
8,000 new cases on February 23rd—com-
pared with 100 a month ago. The chaos on
the wards has, in part, been caused by the
insistence that anyone contracting the dis-
ease, even with no symptoms, must be
placed in hospital or a government isola-
tion centre.
This is unwise, says David Owens, a pro-
fessor of family medicine at the University
of Hong Kong (hku). “In a covid pandemic
the last place we want infectious people is
in hospitals, unless they really need treat-
ment.” Modelling by hkusuggests there
could be 180,000 daily cases within the
next couple of weeks.
Hong Kong has been complacent “at all
levels”, says one public-health expert, who
does not want to be named. Officials have
been proud of previously effective policies,
but they have squandered the success, fail-
ing to improve health facilities, stockpile
tests or sufficiently increase testing capac-
ity. Many pensioners are unvaccinated.
China’s president, Xi Jinping, has or-
dered that the wave be halted through “all
necessary measures”. But Carrie Lam,
Hong Kong’s chief executive, has repeated-
ly said there will be no full lockdown. Chi-
na has sent epidemiologists (and, less use-
fully, 150,000 batches of traditional Chi-
nese medicine). The mainland will also
provide kit for a full month of mass testing.
During March each of Hong Kong’s 7.4m in-
habitants will be required to take three
tests at a government facility, as well as
taking daily tests at home. The infected
will be sent to isolation centres. Even
young children may be separated from
their families. Some 50,000 more places
will be made available in new quarantine
facilities, but they may prove insufficient.
This is unlikely to halt the Omicron
wave. But the variant may naturally burn
through the population within a few
months, reaching a level at which it be-
comes plausible to reintroduce a test, trace
and quarantine system to quash local out-
breaks. This could eventually allow a re-
opening of the border with the mainland,
one of the government’s main aims.
That plan will disappoint those who
were hoping the city might move towards a
policy of living with the virus, as its arch-
rival, Singapore, has done. Instead, the
dogged pursuit of zero covid is proving the
final straw for many expatriates who have
stuck it out so far. “We are fleeing,” admits
one executive. “The fact that we risk having
our ten-year-old daughter being taken
away fromus,means we are looking at
flights now.”HONG KONG
Hong Kong’s refusal to live with the
virus is causing chaosUnnecessary fallout