The Economist (2022-02-26) Riva

50 The Economist February 26th 2022
Europe

TurkeyandRussia

Frenemies

T

raffic on theBosporus, the waterway

that splits Istanbul and connects the

Marmara and Black seas, has been busier

than usual of late, and more dangerous.

Making their way past supertankers, pas-

senger ferries and the occasional pod of

dolphins are Russian warships heading

north towards Ukraine. Since the start of

February, at least six Russian amphibious

assault ships, as well as a Kilo-class sub-

marine, have passed through. Russia now

has four such submarines in the Black sea,

each armed with missiles capable of strik-

ing targets anywhere in Ukraine.

Few countries are watching the war for

which these weapons were deployed as

anxiously as Turkey. Its government, head-

ed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is

eager to preserve a recent rapprochement

with Russia. “We cannot give up” on either

Russia or Ukraine, Mr Erdogan said on Feb-

ruary 23rd. But Russia’s actions may end up

forcing his hand. The following day, as

Russian bombs began falling on Ukraine,

Turkey’s foreign ministry called the inva-

sion “unacceptable” and “a grave violation

of international law”. It had already de-

nounced Russia’s recognition of separatist

enclaves in Ukraine. The war will test the

relationship, possibly to destruction.

Turkey’s most immediate concern is its

economy. Mr Erdogan, who has helped

drive inflation to over 48% and maimed

his currency with ill-judged interest-rate

cuts, is eager for lots of foreign cash from a

busy tourism season, lower energy prices

and some measure of regional stability.

Russia’s actions in Ukraine seem to have

torpedoed such prospects. Russians and

Ukrainians accounted for over a quarter of

foreign visitors to Turkey last year. This

summer, presumably, far fewer will show

up. Western sanctions against Russia, one

of Turkey’s main trading partners and its

main supplier of natural gas, will deal the

economy a separate blow. The war has al-

ready sent shudders through Turkish mar-

kets. On February 24th the lira was headed

for its worst day this year.

Turkey does not want to antagonise

Russia. The last time it did so, by shooting

down a Russian warplane near the border

with Syria in 2015, the Russian response, a

mix of sanctions and threats, was robust

enough to force a rare apology and a range

of concessions from Mr Erdogan. What fol-

lowed was a thaw in relations, marked by

new energy deals, co-operation in Syria,

and Turkey’s purchase of an s-400 air de-

fence system from Russia. Russia has since

tried to peel away Turkey from nato, while

Turkey, estranged from its Western part-

ners, has looked to Russia to advance its re-

gional interests.

Remarkably, the rapprochement has

survived the assassination of Russia’s am-

bassador to Turkey, as well as wars in Lib-

ya, Syria and Azerbaijan in which Turkey’s

proxies have squared off against Russia’s.

The two powers co-operate whenever pos-

sible and confront each other where neces-

sary, though almost never directly. “It’s like

capoeira,” says a European diplomat, refer-

ring to a stylised Brazilian martial art.

ISTANBUL

Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia may not survive the war in Ukraine

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