56 Britain The Economist February 26th 2022
between 2017 and2020.Evensonegotia-
tors hope to concludethedealbytheendof
the year, and afterthattohelpbuildonits
rules from withintheclub.
Attitudes to otherpartnershaveseen
more change. SamLoweofFlintGlobal,a
consultancy, remembersasenseofdenial
from some closetothetalksthatincom-
patibility betweeneuandAmericanfood-
safety standards wouldgetinthewayofa
transatlantic deal.Thathassincefadedin-
to recognition thatitwould,andthatBrit-
ain is unlikely torelaxitsregime.TheBi-
den administration’slackofinterestina
trade deal has alsodivertedenergyintoa
less glamorous effortofworkingwithindi-
vidual states (potentiallyusefulinservic-
es, though not possibleingoods).Ifsuc-
cessful, this couldmakeiteasierforpro-
fessionals to getqualificationsmutually
recognised or createmoreopportunitiesto
win public-procurementcontracts.
With hopes ofadealwithAmericain
the deep freeze, onewithIndiaisthenext
big shiny prize. Indiaisanotoriouslyawk-
ward negotiatingpartner,soofficialsare
not naive about howdifficultthatwillbe.
But if they were tomanageit,itcouldbea
shrewd economicmove.SophieHaleofthe
Resolution Foundation, a think-tank,
points out that India’sdemandforimport-
ed business services,anareathatexploits
British comparativeadvantage,isexpected
to triple by 2030.Businessismoreexcited
about a possible dealwithIndiathanabout
one with America,partlybecausethereis
much more regulatoryuncertaintytotidy
up. The cbibusinesslobbywantsprovi-
sions to encouragefreeflowsofdata,as
well as easier visasforbusinessvisitors.
As for China, thepolicyseemstobenot
to mention it at all,orelsemerelytopoint
to the cptppas anarenainwhichBritain
could help to setstandardsthatoneday
China might move towards.But some
change is happeningbehindthescenes.
Having been scaredbysupply-chainvul-
nerabilities duringthepandemic,dithas
built a team dedicatedtoexaminingsup-
ply-chain resilienceincertainhigh-priori-
ty sectors. There arealsoplanstolauncha
forum with the UnitedStatesTradeRepre-
sentative to discusstopicsincludingun-
fair trading practices.(ThatmeansChina.)
A report by theNationalAuditOffice,a
public watchdog,notestheconcernsof
business associations, civilsocietyand
consumer groupsoveralackofclarityin
the alignment of tradepolicywiththegov-
ernment’s other objectives.MichaelGasio-
rek of the ukTradePolicyObservatory,a
think-tank at SussexUniversity,hopesthat
in future there willbemoreemphasison
meaningful services-tradeliberalisation.
Trade policy hasmovedbeyondasimple
rejection of the eu, whichremainsbyfar
Britain’s biggest tradepartner.Yetthereis
still some way to go.ClimatepolicyAnew routine
T
henavalandmilitaryclub,ahaunt
for ex-servicemen high above the
Thamesestuary,isthesortofvenueNigel
Faragehasworkedfor 30 years.Intheearly
1990s,asanunknowninafringemove-
ment,hewouldhonehisoratorynight
after night in pubs, church hallsand
lounges across southern England, de-
nouncingBrusselswithaperorationhis
regularslearnedtomouthinunison.
HisgigonFebruary17thwasthesame as
ever:agrey-hairedaudience,pintsofale,
thatraspylaugh.Whathaschangedisthe
televisioncameras.MrFaragehasashow,
partpoliticalmanifesto,partlightenter-
tainment,fournightsaweekongbNews, a
right-leaningchannel.Theotherchange is
MrFarage’scause.Heisagitatingforaref-
erendumonnetzero,thegovernment’s
carbon-reductionpolicy.Itspellshigher
energybillsandunaffordableelectriccars,
hetellstheaudience,toapplause.
MrFarageseesparallelswiththeeu
cause.LikeEuropeanintegration,climate
policyinchesforwardbytreaty,drafted by
officialsatinternationalconferences.Just
aswithEuropebefore2016,thereisabroad
consensusamongthemajorpartieson
meetingnetzero.“Theonlydebateis,‘Can
wegotowardsthislunacymorequickly’ ”,
hesays.ukip’srootswereThatcherite,and
lamentingemissionsrulesisanaturalex-
tensionfromdenouncingEuropeanred
tape.ForMrFarage,climatepolicyisacase
ofBrexitfailingtousherinradicalderegu-
lation:BorisJohnson’sexitdealbindsBrit-ain to the Paris climate agreement.
ukipand its successor, the Brexit Party,
didn’t need to win elections. The threat of
splitting Tory voters and the parliamentary
party was enough to force a referendum on
Brexit, and then a hard form of it. On cli-
mate policy, the Tories are ripe for splitting
again. A new backbench caucus, the Net
Zero Scrutiny Group, is led by Craig Mac-
kinlay, a former ukipofficial. A Tory lead-
ership election would offer new leverage
for Mr Farage, as a public battle for the fu-
ture of conservatism. Indeed, he thinks the
mere discussion of a referendum will be
enough to change policy. He imagines “a
people’s army, mobilised to bombard their
local mps, so the political class say ‘Oh my
God, it’s happening again.’ ”
A net-zero referendum would have
clear echoes. As in 2016, a consensus of ex-
perts would fight on an equal footing with
folksy wisdom and fringe voices. Just as
Brexit was never defined in practice, there
would be no clarity on what voting against
net-zero would mean, whether merely a
modest tweak or an emissions free-for-all.
(Mr Farage supports coal and shale-gas ex-
traction). The crucial difference, claims Mr
Farage, is that industry cold on Brexit
would this time support him.
Conservatives hoped that delivering
Brexit would kill Mr Farage’s movement. In
December 2019 four in five Brexit Party vot-
ers switched to the Tories. But there are
signs Mr Johnson’s vote is becoming spon-
gy: Leave voters support a no-confidence
vote by 45% to to 37%, according to Ipsos, a
pollster. Asked by Mr Farage whether they
thought Mr Johnson would lead the Tories
into the next election, only half the room
in Southend raised their hands. “They like
Boris’s optimism, but they’re beginning to
wonder what they voted for,” he declares.
As for net zero, Britons as a whole sup-
port taking action. But four in ten Tory vot-
ers think the threat of climate change is ex-
aggerated, and a similar number oppose
climate-mitigation measures if they harm
the economy. It is a niche too small for Mr
Johnson to win election on, but large
enough for Mr Farage to make trouble with.
And although climate is less potent an is-
sue than immigration, Mr Farage’s stature
among Brexit voters means he may be able
to electrify it, says Rob Ford of the Univer-
sity of Manchester. “He’s a hero to them. If
he’s worked up about it, they’ll assume
they should be too.”
Radical ideas can rush to centre stage at
remarkable speed. In 2006 David Cameron
dismissed Mr Farage’s outfit as “fruitcakes
and loonies”; a decade later, Britain was
out of the eu. In the Southend chill, four
protesters gathered, waving euflags and
playing the Ode to Joy from a car stereo.
Once, Mr Farage quips, it washisgang who
used to protest outside othermeetings.
“We are now the consensus.”SOUTHEND-ON-SEA
After Brexit, Nigel Farage wants a
referendum on net zeroBack to the front again