Top Car

108 TOPCAR.CO.ZA|January 2016Heads downSEPTEMBER’S NAAMSANEWcar sales figures showed shrinkingdomestic de mand and recordexports; October’s data showsexports downa marked 13.9% inadditi on to an aggregate 8.6% year-on-year slideinlocal uptake. But, as ever, it’s the story behindthe figure that makes for a moreaccuratepicture: this time the changeover to the newRanger at Ford’s Silverton assembly plantaccounti ng for the sudden exportshor tfall aftermonths of bu sy boat-loading. The year’s exporttotal is stillexpected to be a record 335000units(roughly 58000units up on 2014). The thirdquarter exportreportshows strong growth inmost regions especially Europe (up 82.3% from70839 to 129166 units). African market s lost23.4% (10784 units), which Naamsa attributesto, among ot her factors, duty increases inNigeria and Zimbabwe, new regulations inAlgeria and broad economic weakening as oiland ot her commodity prices fell.The domestic picture is a tad bleak: theOctober passenger car market lost 10.9%(4433units) year-on-year, light commercials arealmost on pa r, losing 4.1% (646 units), mediumcommercials are up 11.2% (1064 units), whileheavies slid 6.1% (119 units). The third quarterresults echo this, with th e passenger aggregatedown15000units (also 10.9%) and lightcommercials down3.5%. Naamsa points to a‘slow but steady decline’ inthe passenger sector,and ‘resilience’ inthe commercialsector, butnotes that ‘the outlook for business andconsumer spending has deteriorated inrecentmonths’ and pred icts an 8.5% y/y decline inthe2015 domestic sales total.On a moreprosa ic level, the decline can inpartbe linked to lower stock levels as certain modelsget deeper into their run-out phase. Likewise,the marginalimporters willprefer to sellexisting stock before pl undering their coffers onnew and unpred ictable movers when the rand istrading at vulnerable lows. That said, a busy few``````months lie inwait as new and revised modelskeep coming at alarming pace. The 2016 bakkiemarket too, is exploding, with new Hilux,Navara and Triton likely to precede a refreshedIsuzu KB. There willbe no shor tage of choicesout there. Meanwhile, consumers remainheavily indebt ed, and cautious as the rand’svalue continues to fall, at the threat of interestrate hikes, at the high price of fuel, and thelooming drought-driven impact on food prices.We won’t even get to the high unemployment,the lack of consequenc e planning bygovernment departments, and the mess ineducation – no cash for the nation’s buildingblocks but R4bn for the pres ident’s pers onaljet.It is clearly not a time for large-scale capitalpurchases. Wesbank’s motor division CEOSimphiwe Nghona puts it succinctly: ‘With theprev ailing low confidenc e levels, corporates arenot spen ding money acquirin g new orrepl acement assets, choo sing instead to holdonto their capital.’ The October channel salesback this up, with th e y/y rentalmarket figuredown23.8% and the government channel down25.7%.The consumer demand picture isdifferent. The dealer channel was only down2%, and withinthis channel LCV sales were up1.5%, but applications for finance throughWesbank were up 7.5%. According to Nghona,this points to ‘deteriorating credit profiles...withhigh levels of household debt and new lend ingrules that are morestringent’.It’s never all ba d. Local vehicle assembly hasbeen given a sensible boost follo wing revisionsto the industry’s Automotive ProductionDevelopment Programme (ADPD). The volumeceiling to qu alify for indi vidualsubsidies hasbeen lowered from 50000units a year to 10000units, with th e subsidy now on a sliding scalefrom 10% to 18%.There is moresupport tounderwrite tooling costs and local componentsourcing, all likely to benefit new small businessplanning, yet not jeopardise the substantialinvestments of existing assemblers.tc#### CAR SALESKEY INDICATORS – OCTOBER 2015(%change vs Oct 2014)INDUSTRY TOTAL54 244 (-8.6)|PASSENGERCARS 36 175 (-10.9)|LCV 15 171 (-4.1)|EXPORTS 27732 (-13.9) YEAR-TO-DATE517 322 (-4.5)Exports dip, but not for long...Octobersaw 329 ofyoujointhe Upclub. HowmanymoreifVWoffereditwithfive doors,a turboandproperBluetooth?FIVE ON THE SLIDESepOct Units %``````Fiat 500L^412 -^39 -95%``````Chevrolet Spark^692239 -453 -66%``````Nissan X-Trail 231 13 4- 97 -42%``````BMW 3 Seri es^807509 -298 -37%``````VW Tiguan^221140 -81-37%TEN BIG WINNERSSepOct Units %``````BMWX1 12 91 79 658%``````Audi Q7^29127983 38%``````Fiat 500X^167054 338%``````Jaguar XF^11402926 4%``````VW Up^1643291651 01%``````Renault Sandero 649920 2714 2%``````Toyota Fortuner^5707461763 1%``````Ford Figo^6468351892 9%``````Toyota Avanza^3804891092 9%``````Toyota RAV4^41350693 23%``````Irresistible dealson run-out X1, Figoand RAV4?StellarfirstmonthforQ7. Fiat’s 50 0Xgotyourvotewhile otherschose bettervalue XFover cheaper,newer XE. VWdoubledUp. Nearly 1000 Sanderosfoundhomes.Doc saysAvanza facelift asuccess