The Language of Argument

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C H A P T E R 8 ■ A r g u m e n t s T o a n d F r o m G e n e r a l i z a t i o n s

For each of the following statistical applications, identify the reference class,

and then evaluate the strength of the argument in terms of the percentages or

proportions cited and the relevance of the reference class.

1. Less than 1 percent of the people in the world voted for Romney.
   Michelle is a person in the world.
   [ Michelle did not vote for Romney.


2. Very few teams repeat as Super Bowl champions.
   New England was the last Super Bowl champion.
   [ New England will not repeat as Super Bowl champion.


3. A very high percentage of people in the Senate are men.
   Elizabeth Warren is in the Senate.
   [ Elizabeth Warren is a man.


4. Three percent of socialists with blue eyes voted for Romney.
   Maureen is a socialist with blue eyes.
   [ Maureen did not vote for Romney.


5. Ninety-eight percent of what John says is true.
   John said that his father is also named John.
   [ John’s father is named John.


6. Ninety-eight percent of what John says is true.
   John said that the Giants are going to win.
   [ The Giants are going to win.


7. Half the time he doesn’t know what he is doing.
   He is eating lunch.
   [ He does not know that he is eating lunch.


8. Most people do not understand quantum mechanics.
   My physics professor is a person.
   [ My physics professor probably does not understand quantum
   mechanics.


9. Almost all birds can fly.
   This penguin is a bird.
   [ This penguin can fly.


10. Most people who claim to be psychic are frauds.
    Mary claims to be psychic.
    [ Mary is a fraud.

Exercise IV

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