1 9 3S t a t i s t i c a l A p p l i c a t i o n sNOTE
(^1) We can also have a probabilistic version of the statistical syllogism:
Ninety-seven percent of the Republicans from California voted for Romney.
Marvin is a Republican from California.
∴There is a 97 percent chance that Marvin voted for Romney.
We will discuss arguments concerning probability in Chapter 11.
Although both in science and in daily life, we rely heavily on the methods
of inductive reasoning, this kind of reasoning raises a number of perplexing
problems. The most famous problem concerning the legitimacy of induction
was formulated by the eighteenth-century philosopher David Hume, first in
his Treatise of Human Nature and then later in his Enquiry Concerning Human
Understanding. A simplified version of Hume’s skeptical argument goes as
follows: Our inductive generalizations seem to rest on the assumption that
unobserved cases will follow the patterns that we discovered in observed cases.
That is, our inductive generalizations seem to presuppose that nature operates
uniformly: The way things are observed to behave here and now are accurate
indicators of how things behave anywhere and at any time. But by what right
can we assume that nature is uniform? Because this claim itself asserts a con-
tingent matter of fact, it could only be established by inductive reasoning. But
because all inductive reasoning presupposes the principle that nature is uni-
form, any inductive justification of this principle would seem to be circular. It
seems, then, that we have no ultimate justification for our inductive reasoning
at all. Is this a good argument or a bad one? Why?
Discussion Question
97364_ch08_ptg01_177-194.indd 193 15/11/13 10:44 AM
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