The Language of Argument

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9

Chapter C o n t e n t s

E x p l a n a t i o n a n d f r o m A n a l o g y

Even if we can generalize from a sample to the conclusion that most women in a

country voted for a certain candidate, and even if we can apply that generalization

and conclude that Ilina probably voted for that candidate, this generalization and ap-

plication still might not explain why Ilina voted for that candidate. Did she like his

experience or his policies? Which policies? Or did she just dislike his opponent? As

we saw in Chapter 1, generalization is not always enough for explanation. We also

saw in Chapter 1 that some arguments can be used to explain a phenomenon when

they help us understand why it happened. In contrast, explanations can also play a

different role in a new kind of inductive argument. Sometimes we cite the explana-

tory value of a hypothesis as evidence for that hypothesis. This form of argument,

which is described as inference to the best explanation, is the first topic in this

chapter. It requires us to determine which explanation is best, so we will investigate

common standards for assessing explanations, including falsifiability, conservative-

ness, modesty, simplicity, power, and depth. After explaining these standards, this

chapter will turn to a related form of argument called argument from analogy, in

which the fact that two things have certain features in common is taken as evidence

that they have further features in common. The chapter ends by suggesting that

many arguments from analogy are ultimately based on implicit inferences to the best

explanation.

Inferences to the Best Explanation

One of the most common forms of inductive argument is inference to the best

explanation.^1 The general idea behind such inferences is that a hypothesis

gains inductive support if, when added to our stock of previously accepted

beliefs, it enables us to explain something that we observe or believe, and no

competing explanation works nearly as well.

To see how inferences to the best explanation work, suppose you return

to your home and discover that the lock on your front door is broken and

some valuables are missing. In all likelihood, you will immediately conclude

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