2 3 8C H A P T E R 1 0 ■ C a u s a l R e a s o n i n gNOTES
(^1) Mill’s “methods of experimental inquiry” are found in book 3, chap. 8 of his A System of Logic
(London: John W. Parker, 1843). Mill’s method of difference, method of agreement, and joint
method parallel our SCT, NCT, and Joint Test, respectively. Our simplification of Mill’s methods
derives from Brian Skyrms, Choice and Chance, 3rd ed. (Belmont, CA: Wadsworth, 1986), chap. 4.
(^2) These excerpts are drawn from David W. Fraser and Joseph E. McDade, “Legionellosis,”
Scientific American, October 1979, 82–99.
(^3) Ibid.
(^4) Ibid.
(^5) Ibid.
(^6) From Gregory A. Kimble, How to Use (and Misuse) Statistics (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-
Hall, 1978), 182.
(^7) Ibid.
(^8) “Locked Doors No Bar to Crime, Study Says,” Santa Barbara [California] Newspress, Wednesday,
February 16, 1977. This title suggests that locking your doors will not increase safety. Is that a
reasonable lesson to draw from this study?
- “Washington (UPI)—Rural Americans with locked doors, watchdogs or
guns may face as much risk of burglary as neighbors who leave doors
unlocked, a federally financed study says. The study, financed in part
by a three-year $170,000 grant from the Law Enforcement Assistance
Administration, was based on a survey of nearly 900 families in rural
Ohio. Sixty percent of the rural residents surveyed regularly locked
doors [A], but were burglarized more often than residents who left doors
unlocked [B].”^8 - The speed of a car (A) is exactly the same as the speed of its shadow (B).
- The length of a runner’s ring finger minus the length of the runner’s
index finger (A) is correlated with the runner’s speed in the one-hundred-
yard dash (B). - After it became beyond doubt that smoking is dangerous to people’s health,
a new debate arose concerning the possible health hazards of secondhand
smoke on nonsmokers. Collect statements pro and con on this issue and
evaluate the strength of the inductive arguments on each side. - The high positive correlation between CO 2 concentrations in the atmos-
phere and the Earth’s mean surface temperatures is often cited as evidence
that increases in atmospheric CO 2 cause global warming. This argument is
illustrated by the famous “hockey stick” diagram in Al Gore’s An Inconven-
ient Truth. Is this argument persuasive? How could skeptics about global
warming respond?
discussion Questions97364_ch10_ptg01_215-238.indd 238 15/11/13 10:48 AM
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