2 6 1B a y e s ’ s T h e o r e mNOTES
(^1) Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunc-
tion Fallacy in Probability Judgment,” Psychological Review 90 (1983): 297.
(^2) Ibid.
(^3) Thomas Gilovich, Robert Vallone, and Amos Tversky, “The Hot Hand in Basketball: The
Misperception of Random Sequences,” Cognitive Psychology 17 (1985): 295–314. The quotation
is from pages 295 to 296.
(^4) See Gerd Gigerenzer, Calculated Risk: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You (New York:
Simon & Schuster, 2003).
- In a certain school, the probability that a student reads the assigned
pages before a lecture is 80 percent (or 0.8). If a student does the assigned
reading in advance, then the probability that the student will understand
the lecture is 90 percent (or 0.9). If a student does not do the assigned
reading in advance, then the probability that the student will understand
the lecture is 10 percent (or 0.1). What is the probability that a student did
the reading in advance, given that she did understand the lecture? What
is the probability that a student did not do the reading in advance, given
that she did not understand the lecture? - In a different school, the probability that a student reads the assigned
pages before a lecture is 60 percent (or 0.6). If a student does the assigned
reading in advance, then the probability that, when asked, the student
will tell the professor that he did the reading is 100 percent (or 1.0). If a
student does not do the assigned reading in advance, then the probability
that, when asked, the student will tell the professor that he did the
reading is 70 percent (or 0.7). What is the probability that a student did
the reading in advance, given that, when asked, he told the professor that
he did the reading? What is the probability that a student did not do the
reading in advance, given that, when asked, he told the professor that he
did not do the reading?
97364_ch11_ptg01_239-262.indd 261 15/11/13 7:23 PM
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