3 1 6
C H A P T E R 1 5 ■ F a l l a c i e s o f R e l e v a n c e
averypoorkindofthing.Anyonewhoexpectsasourceofpowerfromthe
transformationoftheseatomsistalkingmoonshine.”^4 Giventheknowledge
availableatthetime,bothEinsteinandRutherfordmayhavebeenjustifiedin
theirclaims,buttheirassertionswere,afterall,morespeculationsthanscien-
tificallysupportedstatementsoffact.Thelessontobelearnedfromthisisthat
thebestexpertsaresometimesfallible,andbecomemorefalliblewhenthey
gobeyondestablishedfactsintheirdisciplinetospeculateaboutthefuture.
Althoughthenextquestionmayseemobvious,weoftenforgettoask
whethertheauthorityhasbeencitedcorrectly.Whenapersoncitesanau-
thority,heorsheismakingafactualclaimthatso-and-soholdssomepar-
ticularview.Sometimestheclaimisfalse.Ifsomeonetoldyou,“According
tomedicalauthorities,therashfrompoisonivyiscontagiouswhenitis
oozing,”youwouldprobablybelieveit.Infact,thecitationisincorrect.
Accordingtomedicalauthorities,therashfrompoisonivyisneverconta-
gious.Yetmanypeopleholdthatitiscontagious,andtheythinkthatthey
havemedicalopinionontheirside.Itishardtodealwithpeoplewhocite
authoritiesincorrectly,forwedonotcarryanalmanacorencyclopedia
aroundwithus.WecancheckitontheInternetifwehaveacomputerwith
us,butthatmightseemimpolite.Still,itisagoodideatospot-checkappeals
toauthority,forpeopleoftentwistauthoritiestosupporttheirownopinions.
Itisalsoworthaskingwhetherthecitedauthoritycanbetrustedtotell
thetruth.Toputthismorebluntly,weshouldaskwhetheraparticularau-
thorityhasanygoodreasontolieormisrepresentfacts.Presumably,theof-
ficialswhoknowmostaboutfoodproductioninChinawillbetheheadsof
thevariousagriculturalbureaus.Butitwouldbeutterlynaivetotaketheir
reportsatfacevalue.Inadequateagriculturalproductionhasbeenastand-
ingembarrassmentoftheChineseeconomy.Asaconsequence,thereispres-
sureateveryleveltomakethingslookasgoodaspossible.Evenifthestate
officialswereinclinedtotellthetruth,whichisacharitableassumption,the
informationtheyreceiveisprobablynotveryaccurate.
Expertsalsoliebecauseitcanbringfameandprofessionaladvancement.
Science,sometimesatthehighestlevel,hasbeenembarrassedbyproblems
ofthefalsificationandmisrepresentationofdata.ConsiderthecaseofSir
CyrilBurt’sresearchontheinheritanceofintelligence.Burtwantedtoshow
thatthereisasignificantcorrelationbetweentheIQsofparentsandtheir
children.Thedifficultywastofindawaytoscreenoutotherinfluences—
forexample,thatofhomeenvironment.Toovercomethis,Burtundertook
asystematicstudyofidenticaltwinswhohadbeenseparatedatbirthand
raisedinvarioussocialsettings.Hisstudyrevealedaveryhighcorrelation
betweentheIQsofthesetwins,andthatgavestrongreasontobelievethat
IQ,tosomesignificantextent,dependsonheredityratherthanenvironment.
Unfortunately,Burt’sdata,oratleastasignificantlylargeportionofthem,
werecooked—thatis,madeup.ItisinterestingthatBurt’sbogusresearch
couldgounchallengedforsolong.Itisalsointerestinghowhewasfinally
unmasked.First,tomanyhisresultsseemedtoogoodtobetrue.Heclaimed
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