314 Jeff Manza and Nathan Wright
institutions. The classical secularization model produced a picture of declining religious
influences on the vote, but the evidence we have considered in this chapter suggests
only modest declines in the association between religion and partisan preference and
vote choice. In the United States, most of the change since the 1950s has occurred
among mainline Protestants; other major denominational families remain more or less
in the same political alignment as before, with the usual election-specific fluctuations
(most notably that prompted by born-again Democrat Jimmy Carter’s presidential cam-
paigns of 1976 and 1980). In Europe, secularization has proceeded further, and there
has been declining support for religious parties in many countries and, in some coun-
tries an overall weakening of the religion/vote association. But even here, the amount
of change has frequently been overstated or misunderstood. Religious identities and
involvements persist in shaping the way voters make political choices, and we expect
that this will continue to be the case in the new century.