the future must recognise that humanitarian needs are increasing. Climate change
will be the main driver.”^20
Indeed, for Holmes, writing in late 2008, these consequences were already
with us. “Nine out of every ten disasters are now climate-related. Recorded
disasters have doubled in number from 200 a year to more than 400 over the past
two decades.”^21 The Red Cross movement already sees itself as “in the front line of
climate change impacts.”^22 For instance, the drying up of Lake Chad is pinpointed by
many as a factor that might merit the description of the crisis in Darfur as “the first
climate change war”.^23 Ban Ki-moon has highlighted the issue of displacement
within humanitarianism, calling it “arguably the most significant humanitarian
challenge that we face.”^24 Indeed, this area of the humanitarian practice seems
particularly likely to come under strain in coming decades following the effects of
climate change.^25 It is extremely hard to give detailed displacement scenarios, and
the predictions of total likely numbers come with clear health warnings attached.
However, it seems fairly clear that even in the best-case scenarios millions of people
will be displaced by climate change (among other interrelated factors) within a few
decades. One widely-used loose estimate predicts 200 million displaced by mid-
century.^26 Not only would such scenarios no doubt overwhelm the capacities of
professional humanitarianism, but they are likely to present a very real challenge to
20
John Holmes, "More Help Now, Please", The Economist: The World in 2009 (19 November
2008). Available at
http://www.economist.com/theworldin/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12494621; accessed on
17 June 2010. 21
22 Ibid.
Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Guide (The
Hague: IFRC, 2007), 16. Available at
http://www.climatecentre.org/downloads/File/reports/RCRC_climateguide.pdf; accessed
on 13 August 2010. 23
Anthony Giddens, The Politics of Climate Change (Cambridge: Polity, 2009), 205. Brauman
also recently noted this, though he pointed out that in terms of dealing with the
consequences, professional humanitarians had adopted fairly classical procedures.
Brauman, "Masterclass: A Review of the Last Two Dec 24 ades of Humanitarian Assistance".
Ban Ki-moon, Report of the Secretary-General on the Protection of Civilians in Armed
Conflict (S/2007/643) 25 (United Nations Security Council, 2007).
The problem was addressed in some depth in Forced Migration Review, "Special Issue on
Climate Change and Displacement", 26 Forced Migration Review , no. 31 (2008).
Oli Brown, "The Numbers Game", Forced Migration Review , no. 31 (2008).