analysis and futures forecasting is to build an understanding across the
organisation of the issues that it faces. Therefore this has to be a team activ-
ity that is widely spread. There are a number of issues that have to be con-
sidered when creating this team:● Ownership: The managers who will be responsible for creating and
delivering the strategy that flows from any analysis have to be involved
in the process. If they are involved in developing the forecasts there is a
higher likelihood that they will take ownership of resolving the issues
the process raises.
● Subordinates inputs: A study by Aguilar (1967) illustrated that 23 per
cent of information about the external environment came from subordin-
ate executives. Alternatively only 9 per cent came from superiors and
meetings. The clear implication is that lower status executives have to
be involved in the process. Some forecasters also believe it is easier for
younger people to envision the future because they have been brought
up and socialised in the latest social technical and political environ-
ment. Older individuals have come to the current situation holding
values and beliefs developed when a different environment existed.
Therefore an individual brought up with e-mail and CD ROM technol-
ogy may have a clearer perception of the technologies potential than
an individual whose formative education was based on paper-based
information sources. These individuals again are likely to come from
more junior executive positions in an organisation. Although there
should not be too much emphasis placed on this issue having a group
of individuals of mixed experience could help to provide a more
rounded perspective.
● Challengers: Creating a team that all have the same values and attitudes
to the company is likely to develop a view of the future that does not
challenge the status quo. Individuals who do not conform to the com-
pany stereotype are more likely to challenge and test the conventional
attitudes and beliefs that predominate (see Figure 6.6). Mavericks and
rebels are the type of non-conformists that will challenge conventional
wisdom, these are of course the very individuals that ingroups tend to
exclude.
● Cross-functional teams: Any team is obviously stronger if it is made up
of individuals from across the company’s operations. Not only does
each individual bring an in-depth knowledge of their particular area
of expertise but also helps to build support for marketing plans within
other functional areas.
● Outsiders: As has already been mentioned under scenario planning there
can be advantages in including outside experts in any team. This can be
widened to include representatives of both customers and suppliers.Obviously there are likely to be weaknesses with any group that is formed.
It is unlikely that all the above factors can be covered in any particular
team. However consideration of the above issues should be undertaken by
anyone who is responsible for co-ordinating forecasting activity.126 Strategic Marketing: Planning and Control