148 Leading with NLP
the prisoner’s dilemma
Misplaced trust can be very costly, but you need a minimum
level of trust to do business. How far can you trust competitors?
Where does the fuzzy line between legitimate competition and
unfair trading begin? Even fair competition involves trust.
Trust also means co-operation, with various parties work-
ing together. But why co-operate at all? What’s the point?
Does it lead to any mutual advantage?
Some extremely interesting research has been done on
the problems of trust and co-operation, based on a game
called ‘the prisoner’s dilemma’.^1 Here is the game. Imagine
being a freedom fighter in a corrupt regime. You are work-
ing with a new partner whom you have only just met. One
day, you are both snatched by the secret police in an ambush
and interrogated in separate cells. You have no way of com-
municating with your partner. The police interrogator offers
you a diabolical deal. Inform on your partner and you will
be granted immunity from prosecution, go free and get a
reward. Your partner will be fined and imprisoned. They also
tell you that if both you and your partner rat on each other,
then neither of you gets the reward, but you will both go to
jail. You also know the police have no evidence without a
confession and even they cannot risk charging you if you sit
tight and say nothing. If both you and your partner stay
silent you will both go free to fight another day. Here’s the
twist. The police tell you that they have offered an identical
deal to your partner.
What do you do?
The best deal from your point of view is for both of you to
stay silent. But can you trust your partner? Perhaps they need
the money. If you stay silent and your partner informs on
you, then you will lose and they will go free and get a reward.
You will be fined and imprisoned. Perhaps betraying your
partner is better. But if your partner thinks you will do that,
then they will inform on you first, as they have nothing to
lose. Your choice depends on their choice, depends on your
choice ... What’s the best strategy?