Strategic Human Resource Management

Section Three

Environmental Turbulence

Some general trends in the use of various human resource
forecasting techniques are also evident. Consistent with the
decentralization theme mentioned previously, a survey of
forecasting techniques by Quinn Mills indicates that the most
prevalently employed techniques are relatively unsophisticated
ones that can be readily understood and used by line
managers.^35 Many of these relationships also are explained by
forecasters’ perceptions of the level of uncertainty in the
environment. Thomas Stone and Jack Fiorito have developed a
perceived uncertainty model, which explains the selection of
forecasting techniques. Their model’s predictions are consistent
with Mills’ findings as it predicts lower utilization of
sophisticated techniques such as Markov analysis, operations
research, and computer simulation, under conditions of
moderately high and high perceived uncertainty. Essentially,
their model indicates that sophisticated techniques cannot be
used effectively in such environments because they require
greater stability for accurate predictions. Such conditions
describe the current environment of many companies and may
explain the trend toward use of less sophisticated techniques.
The results of empirical research by Huselid, noted earlier, are
consistent with Stone and Fiorito’s predictions. Huselid found
that companies with moderate levels of workforce volatility are
more inclined to engage in human resource planning.