Section Three FORECASTING THE SUPPLY OF
HUMAN RESOURCES
Techniques used to forecast supplies of human resources may
be classified as either quantitative or qualitative, although the
distinction is sometimes unclear. Further, some forecasting
techniques may be used to forecast both the supply and
demand of human resources. Thus, classifications of techniques
as either supply or demand, as well as quantitative or
qualitative, must be arbitrary to some extent. With these
limitations in mind, the category of quantitative techniques
includes Markov analysis or network flow models, attrition
analysis models, computer simulation, operations research
techniques, and renewal models. The category of qualitative
supply forecasting techniques includes replacement charts or
succession planning and supervisory estimates. Occasionally,
human resource inventories will be categorized as planning or
forecasting techniques. However, they are not really forecasting
techniques even though inventories provide the database from
which forecasts of internal supplies of human resources are
derived.^43 This section will describe replacement charts,
succession planning, Markov analysis, renewal models, and
computer simulation. In addition, the current utilization of these
techniques will be discussed.