who select it) cannot be increased when new options are added. In particular,
the proportion of people who choose the option to defer decision should not
increase when additional alternatives become available.
Despite the simplicity and intuitive appeal of the principle above, there is
evidence that people’s preference between two options can depend on the
presence or absence of a third alternative. The introduction of a third option
can make the decision easier or harder to resolve and thus can affect preference
and increase the tendency to defer choice. The making of decisions often creates
conflict: we are not sure how to trade off one attribute relative to another or
which option would benefit us most. When people are offered a single attrac-
tive option, there is little conflict and choice is easy; however, when two or
more attractive options are available, each with its advantages and disadvan-
tages, people often experience conflict, which may compel them to delay deci-
sion, maintain the status quo, or seek additional information.
The economist Thomas Schelling tells of an occasion on which he had de-
cided to buy an encyclopedia for his children, and was presented at a bookstore
with two attractive options. Finding it difficult to choose between them, he
ended up buying neither, although had only one encyclopedia been available,
he would have happily bought it. More generally, there are situations in which
people prefer each of the available alternatives over the status quo but do not
have a compelling reason for choosing among the alternatives and, as a result,
defer the decision, perhaps indefinitely.
This phenomenon is demonstrated by this pair of problems, which were pre-
sented to two groups of students (Tversky and Shafir 1992b).
Problem 7ðN¼ 121 Þ,Low Conflict
Suppose you are considering buying a compact disc (CD) player, and
have not yet decided what model to buy. You pass by a store that is
having a one-day clearance sale. They offer a popular SONY player for
just $99, well below the list price. Do you?
y. buy the SONY player [66%]
z. wait until you learn more about the various models [34%]
Problem 8ðN¼ 124 Þ,High Conflict
Suppose you are considering buying a compact disc (CD) player, and
have not yet decided what model to buy. You pass by a store that is
having a one-day clearance sale. They offer a popular SONY player for
just $99, and a top-of-the-line AIWA player for just $169, both well below
the list price. Do you?
x. buy the AIWA player [27%]
y. buy the SONY player [27%]
z. wait until you learn more about the various models [46%]
TheresultsindicatethatpeoplearemorelikelytobuyaCDplayerinthe
former,low conflict, condition than in the latter,high conflict,situation.Both
products—the AIWA and the SONY—seem attractive, both are well priced,
and both are on a one-day sale. The decision maker needs to determine
whether she is better off with a cheaper, popular product, or with a more ex-
Decision Making 615