Figure 10.8: Illustration of Bayesian probabilistic network including common cause
failures/dependencies.
Analysis of the net shown in Figure 10.8 yields the results given in Figure 10.9.
Figure 10.9: Illustration of the risk analysis taking into account common cause failures.
It is seen that the analysis is performed just as straight forward as in the case where no
common cause failure were present, however, in the present example with minor implications
on the results.
Example 10.3– Decision analysis by Bayesian Probabilistic Nets
Tools for BPN analysis such as HUGIN Lite which was applied in the previous example
typically also include an option for Bayesian decision analysis. The basic theoretical basis for
Bayesian decision analysis was introduced in Lecture 3. In this lecture an example was also
provided illustrating its use. As might be realized through this example even a rather simple