The probabilities in Table 10.9 shall be understood as the probability of e.g. indicating a
stratum depth of 40 ft given that the real stratum dept in fact is 50 ft i.e. a probability of 0.1.
The Bayesian net together with the unconditional and conditional state probabilities is shown
in Figure 10.12.
Figure 10.12: Bayesian net for pre-posterior decision analysis.
By executing the Bayesian net the results shown in Figure 10.13 are established.
Figure 10.13: Results of pre-posterior analysis.
From Figure 10.13 it is seen that the expected cost associated with the decision of performing
the ultrasonic measurements is 40 monetary units whereas not doing so has an expected cost
of 70 monetary units. The conclusion being that it is beneficial to perform the ultrasonic
measurements as long as this measurement costs less than 30 monetary units.
10.6 Large Scale Natural Hazards Risk Management using BPN’s
Exposures such as natural hazards comprise an important risk contribution in most countries
of the world; however, the relevant types, intensities and associated risks depend strongly on
specific location. In more developed parts of the world natural hazards usually are not
associated with risks endangering the existence of the societies located there but this is