Titel_SS06

Risk ManagementRisk Management

On-site observationsOn-site observations

Official/insurance dataOfficial/insurance data

Airplane observationsAirplane observations

Satellite ObservationsSatellite Observations

Real World

ExposureExposure

VulnerabilityVulnerability

RobustnessRobustness

IndicatorsIndicators

ExposureExposure

VulnerabilityVulnerability

RobustnessRobustness

IndicatorsIndicators

Models of real world

Risk reduction measuresRisk reduction measuresRisk reduction measuresRisk reduction measures

Actions

GIS Interface PlatformGIS Interface Platform

Figure 10.15: Components of a GIS based risk management system.

The GIS platform serves as a database for storing and managing the information required for
the risk management process and strategy optimization. Considering earthquake risk
management the GIS database would include data layers as illustrated in Figure 10.16.

Buildings/infrastructure and life lines

Soil characteristics

Landscape topography

Earthquake source locations

GIS Data Base Layers

Figure 10.16: Data layers utilized in a GIS based earthquake risk management framework.

The data stored in the different layers in the GIS data base from Figure 16 may directly be
utilized in the modelling of the risks as illustrated in Figure 10.15. The data in the GIS data
base provides all relevant information needed to assess the risks associated with the
geographically distributed assets. For the purpose of assessing the risks, however, efficient
tools are required. Considering the often very large number of assets which must be taken into
account in natural hazards risk management, at least for hazards with a large geographical
impact zone such as earthquakes, tsunamis, droughts and floods it is a practical necessity to
apply generic risk models. For this purpose Bayesian Probabilistic Nets have proven to be
very efficient, see e.g. Bayraktarli et al. ICOSSAR (2005), Bayraktarli et al. (2006) and Faber
et al. (2005).

The idea behind the application of generic BPN risk models is to identify categories of assets
such as categories of buildings for which the risk assessment model has the principally same
structure. BPN’s are then formulated for each category but with incorporation of the
indicators characterizing exposures, vulnerability and robustness. In this way the individual
generic risk models can be made specific for a given asset (e.g. building) by relating the risk
model to the asset through the information of the indicators stored in the GIS data base. In
Figure 10.17 an illustration is provided showing how a generic earthquake risk model in terms
of a BPN has been formulated in terms of indicators. This model was developed within the