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resources such as water and grazing, already sharpened by environmental
pressures. As a result of the CPA and, in some places, a lengthy series
of parallel local negotiations, an intermittent peace came to prevail in
most of the north-south frontier area. But the CPA has ushered in a new
phase of clandestine proxy military activity and on-going manipulation
of local political rivalries. And these are now further complicated by
electoral politics. In the meantime the mineral wealth in parts of the
borderlands is being exploited at a growing rate, to the benefit of the
National Government in Khartoum and the Government of Southern
Sudan. These authorities have been simultaneously engaged in negotia-
tions on re-demarcation of the north-south borderline. And both have
made preparations for a possible return to war.
Addressing local interests and aspirations on both sides of the frontier
- and the extent to which they do or do not reflect the interests of the
governing powers – is vital to keeping the wider peace process in Sudan
on track. The failure of peace negotiations in Darfur illustrates the diffi-
culty of ending a civil war without taking into account the rival interests
of particular communities that inhabit a specific zone of conflict and that
share its resources, and understanding the patterns of leadership in those
communities. And the case of Abyei has shown, specifically, that detailed
elucidation of the history of rival local claims to resources is necessary
for there to be a chance of resolving conflicts that may arise.
Along the north-south border there are many other Abyeis. That is
to say, other communities in long-standing relationships of coopera-
tion and confrontation, each with a particular sense of their claims over
local resources and with a particular, historically-defined relation to the
government and other powers in the land. On the northern side, the
popular consultations provided for Blue Nile and South Kordofan in the
CPA fall short of the right to self-determination as accorded to the people
of Southern Sudan. And the prospect of an independent South Sudan
has created a feeling of abandonment among inhabitants of these areas,
a perception that they have no political or military backup in challenging
the Khartoum government on their political future; these are likely flash-
The Sudan Handbook, edited by John Ryle, Justin Willis, Suliman Baldo and Jok Madut Jok. © 2011 Rift Valley Institute and contributors points for future conflict.
(www.riftvalley.net).