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with risk assessments all the time. Psychologists have questioned ordinary peo-

ple to see how accurately they can gauge risks. In a classic study, the psycholo-

gist Paul Slovik asked 15 national experts and 40 members of the League of

Women’s Voters to rank the everyday risks listed in Table 11.2. You can use the

alphabetically ordered list of activities in the table to test your own “risk apti-

tude.” Before turning to Table 11.3, rank the items in Table 11.2 from 1 to 30

in descending order of risk. (In constructing your ranking, consider the total

risk to society of the activity or technology.)^15

Table 11.3 lists the activities and compares the rankings of experts and

ordinary people (members of the league). Scanning the list, one observes some

general level of agreement between the two rankings. Certain items (hand-

guns, motorcycles, smoking) are ranked as high risk and others as low risk

(antibiotics, home appliances, power mowers) by both groups.

More interesting, however, are the gaps between people’s risk perceptions

and experts’ judgments. Psychologists have found that several factors affect the

average person’s risk perception. Risks that loom largest in people’s perceptions

are those that are most visible, imposed (rather than voluntary or under one’s

TABLE 11.2

Risky Choices

How would you rank

the following items in

order of risk?

Activity or Your Risk

Technology Ranking

Alcoholic beverages ________

Antibiotics ________

Bicycles ________

Commercial aviation ________

Contraceptives ________

Electric power ________

Fire fighting ________

Food coloring ________

Food preservatives ________

Handguns ________

High school and

college football ________

Home appliances ________

Hunting ________

Large construction ________

Motorcycles ________

Activity or Your Risk

Technology Ranking

Motor vehicles ________

Mountain climbing ________

Nuclear power ________

Pesticides ________

Police work ________

Power mowers ________

Private aviation ________

Railroads ________

Skiing ________

Smoking ________

Spray cans ________

Surgery ________

Swimming ________

Vaccinations ________

X-rays ________

(^15) These research results appear in Paul Slovik, “Perception of Risk,’’ Science(1987): 280–285.
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