c. According to the joint table, Pr(S|C) .5/.8 .625 and Pr(S|H)
0/.2 0.
Risky Outcomes
Prototype Success Failure Total
Cool .5 .3 .8
Hot 0.2. 2
.5 .5
d. If the prototype chip runs cool, the expected profit from pursuing the
R&D investment is (.625)(32) (.375)(40) $5 million, so it is
worth investing. If the chip runs hot, the R&D program will fail with
certainty, so the firm should walk away. Therefore, the firm’s overall
expected profit from testing the chip is: (.8)(5) (.2)(0) $4
million. Testing makes sense because its expected value ($4 million) is
greater than its cost ($2 million).
- a. A bid of $130,000 is the best choice. Its expected profit is (.5)(30,000)
$15,000.
b. Here, the expected cost is $100,000, which is identical to the certain
cost in part (a). Thus, there is no change in expected profit. The
optimal bid is $130,000 as before.
c. As the decision tree shows, your company’s expected profit with perfect
cost information is $17,500. Thus, the EVI 17,500 15,000 $2,500.
26 Answers to Odd-Numbered Problems
.5
.5
Success
Failure
$50
–$40
5
.5
.5
Success
Failure
$5
–$40
.6
Exclusive
3
0
Not
0
Not
5
.4
Share
Pursue R&D
Pursue R&D
0 –17.5
BMAns.qxd 9/26/11 11:18 AM Page 26