The Economist - USA (2022-02-26)

50 The Economist February 26th 2022
Europe

TurkeyandRussia

Frenemies

T

raffic on theBosporus, the waterway

that  splits  Istanbul  and  connects  the

Marmara  and  Black  seas,  has  been  busier

than  usual  of  late,  and  more  dangerous.

Making  their  way  past  supertankers,  pas­

senger  ferries  and  the  occasional  pod  of

dolphins  are  Russian  warships  heading

north  towards  Ukraine.  Since  the  start  of

February,  at  least  six  Russian  amphibious

assault  ships,  as  well  as  a  Kilo­class  sub­

marine,  have  passed  through.  Russia  now

has four such submarines in the Black sea,

each armed with missiles capable of strik­

ing targets anywhere in Ukraine. 

Few countries are watching the war for

which  these  weapons  were  deployed  as

anxiously as Turkey. Its government, head­

ed  by  President  Recep  Tayyip  Erdogan,  is

eager  to  preserve  a  recent  rapprochement

with Russia. “We cannot give up” on either

Russia or Ukraine, Mr Erdogan said on Feb­

ruary 23rd. But Russia’s actions may end up

forcing  his  hand.  The  following  day,  as

Russian  bombs  began  falling  on  Ukraine,

Turkey’s  foreign  ministry  called  the  inva­

sion “unacceptable” and “a grave violation

of  international  law”.  It  had  already  de­

nounced Russia’s recognition of separatist

enclaves  in  Ukraine.  The  war  will  test  the

relationship, possibly to destruction.

Turkey’s most immediate concern is its

economy.  Mr  Erdogan,  who  has  helped

drive  inflation  to  over  48%  and  maimed

his  currency  with  ill­judged  interest­rate

cuts, is eager for lots of foreign cash from a

busy  tourism  season,  lower  energy  prices

and  some  measure  of  regional  stability.

Russia’s  actions  in  Ukraine  seem  to  have

torpedoed  such  prospects.  Russians  and

Ukrainians accounted for over a quarter of

foreign  visitors  to  Turkey  last  year.  This

summer,  presumably,  far  fewer  will  show

up. Western sanctions against Russia, one

of  Turkey’s  main  trading  partners  and  its

main supplier of natural gas, will deal the

economy a separate blow. The war has al­

ready sent shudders through Turkish mar­

kets. On February 24th the lira was headed

for its worst day this year.

Turkey  does  not  want  to  antagonise

Russia. The last time it did so, by shooting

down  a  Russian  warplane  near  the  border

with Syria in 2015, the Russian response, a

mix  of  sanctions  and  threats,  was  robust

enough to force a rare apology and a range

of concessions from Mr Erdogan. What fol­

lowed  was  a  thaw  in  relations,  marked  by

new  energy  deals,  co­operation  in  Syria,

and  Turkey’s  purchase  of  an  s­400  air  de­

fence system from Russia. Russia has since

tried to peel away Turkey from nato, while

Turkey,  estranged  from  its  Western  part­

ners, has looked to Russia to advance its re­

gional interests. 

Remarkably,  the  rapprochement  has

survived the assassination of Russia’s am­

bassador to Turkey, as well as wars in Lib­

ya, Syria and Azerbaijan in which Turkey’s

proxies  have  squared  off  against  Russia’s.

The two powers co­operate whenever pos­

sible and confront each other where neces­

sary, though almost never directly. “It’s like

capoeira,” says a European diplomat, refer­

ring  to  a  stylised  Brazilian  martial  art.

I STANBUL

Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia may not survive the war in Ukraine

→Alsointhissection

51 TheeconomyandFrance’selection

52 ThePope’ssecretdecrees

52 Spain’sdoomedoppositionleader

53 Smugglinggreenhousegases

54 Charlemagne: The free-rider continent