The Economist - USA (2022-02-26)

56 Britain The Economist February 26th 2022

between  2017  and2020.Evensonegotia­

tors hope to concludethedealbytheendof

the year, and afterthattohelpbuildonits

rules from withintheclub.

Attitudes  to  otherpartnershaveseen

more  change.  SamLoweofFlintGlobal,a

consultancy, remembersa senseofdenial

from  some  closetothetalksthatincom­

patibility betweeneuandAmericanfood­

safety standards wouldgetinthewayofa

transatlantic deal.Thathassincefadedin­

to recognition thatitwould,andthatBrit­

ain  is  unlikely  torelaxitsregime.TheBi­

den  administration’slackofinterestina

trade  deal  has  alsodivertedenergyintoa

less glamorous effortofworkingwithindi­

vidual  states  (potentiallyusefulinservic­

es,  though  not  possibleingoods).Ifsuc­

cessful,  this  couldmakeiteasierforpro­

fessionals  to  getqualificationsmutually

recognised or createmoreopportunitiesto

win public­procurementcontracts.

With  hopes  ofa dealwithAmericain

the deep freeze, onewithIndiaisthenext

big shiny prize. Indiaisa notoriouslyawk­

ward  negotiatingpartner,soofficialsare

not naive about howdifficultthatwillbe.

But if they were tomanageit,itcouldbea

shrewd economicmove.SophieHaleofthe

Resolution  Foundation, a think­tank,

points out that India’sdemandforimport­

ed business services,anareathatexploits

British comparativeadvantage,isexpected

to triple by 2030.Businessismoreexcited

about a possible dealwithIndiathanabout

one  with  America,partlybecausethereis

much more regulatoryuncertaintytotidy

up.  The  cbibusinesslobbywantsprovi­

sions  to  encouragefreeflowsofdata,as

well as easier visasforbusinessvisitors.

As for China, thepolicyseemstobenot

to mention it at all,orelsemerelytopoint

to  the  cptppas  anarenainwhichBritain

could  help  to  setstandardsthatoneday

China  might  move towards. But some

change  is  happeningbehindthescenes.

Having  been  scaredbysupply­chainvul­

nerabilities  duringthepandemic,dithas

built  a  team  dedicatedtoexaminingsup­

ply­chain resilienceincertainhigh­priori­

ty sectors. There arealsoplanstolauncha

forum with the UnitedStatesTradeRepre­

sentative  to  discusstopicsincludingun­

fair trading practices.(ThatmeansChina.)

A report by theNationalAuditOffice,a

public  watchdog,notes theconcerns of

business  associations, civil society and

consumer  groupsovera lackofclarityin

the alignment of tradepolicywiththegov­

ernment’s other objectives.MichaelGasio­

rek  of  the  ukTradePolicyObservatory,a

think­tank at SussexUniversity,hopesthat

in  future  there  willbemoreemphasison

meaningful  services­trade liberalisation.

Trade  policy  hasmovedbeyonda simple

rejection  of  the  eu, whichremainsbyfar

Britain’s biggest tradepartner.Yetthereis

still some way to go.n

Climatepolicy

A new routine

T

henavalandmilitaryclub, a haunt

for ex­servicemen high above the

Thamesestuary,isthesortofvenueNigel

Faragehasworkedfor 30 years.Intheearly

1990s,asanunknowninafringemove­

ment, hewould hone his oratory night

after night in pubs, church halls and

lounges across southern England, de­

nouncingBrusselswithaperorationhis

regularslearnedtomouthinunison.

HisgigonFebruary17thwasthesame as

ever:a grey­hairedaudience,pintsofale,

thatraspylaugh.Whathaschangedisthe

televisioncameras.MrFaragehasa show,

partpoliticalmanifesto,partlightenter­

tainment,fournightsa weekongbNews, a

right­leaningchannel.Theotherchange is

MrFarage’scause.Heisagitatingfora ref­

erendum on netzero, thegovernment’s

carbon­reduction policy.Itspells higher

energybillsandunaffordableelectriccars,

hetellstheaudience,toapplause.

MrFarage seesparallels withthe eu

cause.LikeEuropeanintegration,climate

policyinchesforwardbytreaty,drafted by

officialsatinternationalconferences.Just

aswithEuropebefore2016,thereisa broad

consensus among the major parties on

meetingnetzero.“Theonlydebateis,‘Can

wegotowardsthislunacymorequickly’ ”,

hesays.ukip’s rootswereThatcherite,and

lamentingemissionsrulesisa naturalex­

tension fromdenouncing European red

tape.ForMrFarage,climatepolicyisa case

ofBrexitfailingtousherinradicalderegu­

lation:BorisJohnson’sexitdealbindsBrit­

ain to the Paris climate agreement. 

ukipand its successor, the Brexit Party,

didn’t need to win elections. The threat of

splitting Tory voters and the parliamentary

party was enough to force a referendum on

Brexit,  and  then  a  hard  form  of  it.  On  cli­

mate policy, the Tories are ripe for splitting

again.  A  new  backbench  caucus,  the  Net

Zero  Scrutiny  Group,  is  led  by  Craig  Mac­

kinlay, a former ukipofficial. A Tory lead­

ership  election  would  offer  new  leverage

for Mr Farage, as a public battle for the fu­

ture of conservatism. Indeed, he thinks the

mere  discussion  of  a  referendum  will  be

enough  to  change  policy.  He  imagines  “a

people’s army, mobilised to bombard their

local mps, so the political class say ‘Oh my

God, it’s happening again.’ ”

A  net­zero  referendum  would  have

clear echoes. As in 2016, a consensus of ex­

perts would fight on an equal footing with

folksy  wisdom  and  fringe  voices.  Just  as

Brexit was never defined in practice, there

would be no clarity on what voting against

net­zero  would  mean,  whether  merely  a

modest tweak or an emissions free­for­all.

(Mr Farage supports coal and shale­gas ex­

traction). The crucial difference, claims Mr

Farage,  is  that  industry  cold  on  Brexit

would this time support him.

Conservatives  hoped  that  delivering

Brexit would kill Mr Farage’s movement. In

December 2019 four in five Brexit Party vot­

ers  switched  to  the  Tories.  But  there  are

signs Mr Johnson’s vote is becoming spon­

gy:  Leave  voters  support  a  no­confidence

vote by 45% to to 37%, according to Ipsos, a

pollster. Asked by Mr Farage whether they

thought Mr Johnson would lead the Tories

into  the  next  election,  only  half  the  room

in Southend raised their hands. “They like

Boris’s optimism, but they’re beginning to

wonder what they voted for,” he declares.

As for net zero, Britons as a whole sup­

port taking action. But four in ten Tory vot­

ers think the threat of climate change is ex­

aggerated,  and  a  similar  number  oppose

climate­mitigation measures if they harm

the economy. It is a niche too small for Mr

Johnson  to  win  election  on,  but  large

enough for Mr Farage to make trouble with.

And although climate is less potent an is­

sue than immigration, Mr Farage’s stature

among Brexit voters means he may be able

to electrify it, says Rob Ford of the Univer­

sity of Manchester. “He’s a hero to them. If

he’s  worked  up  about  it,  they’ll  assume

they should be too.” 

Radical ideas can rush to centre stage at

remarkable speed. In 2006 David Cameron

dismissed Mr Farage’s outfit as “fruitcakes

and  loonies”;  a  decade  later,  Britain  was

out  of  the  eu.  In  the  Southend  chill,  four

protesters  gathered,  waving  euflags  and

playing  the  Ode  to  Joy  from  a  car  stereo.

Once, Mr Farage quips, it washisgang who

used  to  protest  outside  other meetings.

“We are now the consensus.”n

S OUTHEND-ON-SEA

After Brexit, Nigel Farage wants a

referendum on net zero

Back to the front again