The Economist - USA (2019-08-03)

12 The EconomistAugust 3rd 2019

Lettersarewelcomeandshouldbe addressedtotheEditorat TheEconomist,TheAdelphiBuilding, 1-11 JohnAdamStreet,LondonWC 2 N 6 HT Email:[email protected] Morelettersareavailableat: Economist.com/letters

Letters

Insuring for a healthy life Your article on innovation in insurance (“Run for cover”, July 20th) did not touch on a funda- mental transformation that is taking place across the life-, health- and motor-insurance markets, namely incentivising customers to be healthier and to make better choices. This acknowledges that the nature and treatment of risk has shifted, from pre-existing risk to risk driven by behavioural factors. Some 60% of mortality and 80% of the global disease burden are a function of just four lifestyle choices—lack of exercise, poor nutrition, smok- ing and alcohol abuse—which lead to major non-communi- cable diseases. This new approach to risk allows companies to share the gains resulting from healthier choices with their customers, by funding valuable incentives and lowering premiums, creat- ing a shared-value loop. It has also created a more profound role for insurers: not only providing protection against adverse events, but helping make society healthier. adrian gore Group chief executive Discovery Vitality Johannesburg

Insurance companies are indeed clueless about the most recent advances in climate and weather modelling, even though the risks they cover are “becoming more severe and unpredictable.” But because insurers usually offer short- term contracts this problem is of only minor importance to their business at this point. It does pose more complex challenges for governments, prop- erty owners and lenders, who are in it for the long-term. You also lauded the innovation of “parametric insurance”, where polices pay out when clearly defined parameters, such as rainfall threshold, are reached. But the evidence suggests that when insurers tried to sell these parametric products (initially for crops in low-income countries), the take-up was very low, even when premiums were

subsidised.Stilltoooften, parametricinsuranceisakinto a lotteryticket,asbasisrisk— thelackofcorrespondence betweentheparametrictrigger andexperienceddamage—is high.Riskmodellingneedsto improvebeforemanyofthese productsshouldbesold. ilannoy Chairintheeconomics ofdisasters VictoriaUniversityof Wellington Wellington,NewZealand

A giantincomputing AlanTuringdidnotbuild Colossus,anelectronicdigital computerthatmadea big contributiontobreakingthe GermanLorenzcipherinthe secondworldwar(“Duecredit”, July20th).Thatacclaimshould gotoTommyFlowers.Hegot nopublicrecognitionatthe timeandhashadprecious littlesince.Flowerswasborn toa working-classfamilyin Poplar,a poorpartofeast London.Hewaseducated throughanapprenticeshipand bytakingnightclassesatthe UniversityofLondon.He deservestoberememberedfor hisachievement. donaldneal Hamilton,NewZealand

Colombia’s cocaine problem “Blow up” (July 6th) reported on Colombia’s expanded coca cultivation and the govern- ment’s poor options for dealing with it. This illustrates only too clearly the curse that the un drug conventions and their enforcement by America in its war on drugs have cast upon the country. There is a case that Colombia’s guerrilla move- ments would have made peace in the early 1990s had it not been for the cocaine revenues that gave the farcample means to carry on. Now, ironi- cally, a surge in coca cultivation, that is in part a perverse result of that peace process, is fuelling a recrudescence of violence in the coca-growing areas that the farcabandoned. Other countries should give Colombia time to reduce pro- duction and support its efforts

intracingassetsanddisrupt- ingflowsofcash,cocaineand precursorchemicals,which canbejustaseffectiveascrop eradication.InBogotáthereare concernsthatAmericanimpa- tiencemightleadtheadminis- trationtodecertifyColombia foritsslowprogress.Thiswas triedinthemid-1990s.It suc- ceededingettingColombiato reintroduceextraditionbut alsocontributedtoa dramatic increaseincocacultivation andparamilitaryviolence. Therecouldnotbea worse timefora repetitionofthat, withthepeaceprocessatsuch a delicatestage.AndColombia isAmerica’skeyallyindealing withtheVenezuelancrisis. sirkeithmorris BritishAmbassadorto Colombia,1990- London

Planning for the future Scenarios should radically challenge conventional thinking, rather than just sound crazy, as the leader accompa- nying The World If suggests (“Navigating the rapids”, July 6th). At the Oxford Scenarios Programme, we argue that the value of scenarios lies in the actions taken as a consequence of thinking through a small set of alternative possible futures, which cannot be dismissed as crazy, and instead have sufficient connection with reality to pose credible challenges to current thinking. What may appear crazy to one member of a team is reason- able to another. What matters is making sense of the apparent strangeness or incompatibility of contrasting and different perspectives to help leaders navigate turbulence. Good scenarios are thus honed for a specific user, use, and purpose. Rigorous theory and method guide the use of these scenarios and help executives go beyond respond- ing to things haphazardly. rafael ramirez cho khong trudi lang cynthia selin Faculty Oxford Scenarios Programme

Thanks for the annual summer brain exercises in The World If. Reading about future fore- casting reminds me of Isaac Asimov’s early novel, “Foundation”, in which a mathematician discovers the future. A lesson can be derived from this book: the mathematician refuses to share his findings because by doing so it would modify, and potentially annihilate, his predictions. In other words, by sharing a handful of speculative scenarios, you may have changed the course of history. christophe cauvy Oxford

The future is not always conve- niently packaged. Around 1990 Bell Laboratories conducted a survey among its most insightful prognosticators regarding the most significant communications technologies that would lead us into the millennium. isdnmade the list; the internet did not. As Yogi Berra (may have) said, it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. hans mattes Petaluma, California

The at-odds couple The parents of the students who refused to take Trump supporters as roommates should be asking for their tuition back (“Strange bed- fellows”, July 20th). The core skill of an educated person is to be able to listen to an opposing view, engage with it, find com- mon ground if possible, learn from it and respect it. By rejecting Trump supporters, these students mimic his behaviour by gleefully rejecting anyone who disagrees with them. My second thought after reading the article, is where can I find an apartment for $625 a month? peggy troupin New York

The Economist - USA (2019-08-03)

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