The Economist - USA (2019-08-03)

TheEconomistAugust 3rd 2019 23

1

L

ike mostcitizens of Central America’s

northern-triangle countries, Hondu-

rans have reasons to flee. Gangs terrorise

them. Jobs pay poorly. Many of the half-

million Hondurans in the United States

urge relatives to come. Since October, Mex-

ican and American border agents have de-

tained a 30th of Honduras’s population. On

July 26th Guatemala and the United States

signed a safe-third-country agreement, the

main aim of which is to oblige Hondurans

who wish to seek asylum in the United

States to do so in Guatemala first. That is

unlikely to stop the exodus.

Honduras at least has strong leadership,

or so it once seemed. Guatemala’s ineffec-

tual president, Jimmy Morales, a former

comedian, will soon hand power to the

winner of an election to be held on August

11th. El Salvador’s new president, Nayib Bu-

kele, is energetic but has little support in

congress. Juan Orlando Hernández, Hon-

duras’s president since 2014, was thought

to be the region’s political genius, endowed

with a preternatural talent for keeping and

wielding power.

He lived up to that reputation in his first

term. Honduras had the world’s highest

murder rate when he took office, though it

was falling. He lowered it further and

curbed cocaine-trafficking with new taxes

to pay for more security spending (see

chart). He purged corrupt police officers

and extradited criminals to the United

States. He lengthened the school year and

cut the budget deficit. He dealt smartly

with crises. A scandal in 2015 prompted de-

monstrations against his presidency. He

quietened them by inviting the Organisa-

tion of American States to set up an anti-

corruption body, called maccih. 

Mr Hernández’s Machiavellian master-

piece was to position himself to run for re-

election, which was disallowed by the con-

stitution until 2015, and then to win in 2017.

But his victory followed a contest marred

by breakdowns in ballot counting, suspi-

cions of fraud and the deaths of protest-

ers. That is when his problems began.

A Gallup poll in May found that 86% of

Hondurans believe that the country is on

the wrong track, up from 60% in 2017. Mr

Hernández’s net approval rating dropped

from +31 to -17. The left-wing opposition,

which lost the election in 2017, remains

convinced that it was stolen. More worry-

ing for the president, his own centre-right

National Party (pn) is turning against him.

In past elections it has defeated a divided

opposition by staying united, says Raúl Pi-

neda Alvarado, a former pncongressman.

Now the pnitself is split.

Many pnpoliticians think Mr Hernán-

Honduras

The humbling of Hernández

TEGUCIGALPA

The strongman of the northern triangle is losing his strength

Leaving paradise

Sources:USCustomsandBorderProtection;IgarapéInstitute;IMF *FiscalyearsendingSept30th †October-June

Homiciderateper100,000

population

Honduras,government

budgetbalance,%ofGDP

Apprehensions of Hondurans

at the US border*, ’000

Honduras

FORECAST

102007 15 19†

150

200

100

50

0

Juan Orlando

Hernández

takesoffice

2000 10 2420

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

181510052000

100

80

60

40

20

Latin America & the Caribbean 0

The Americas

24 UberinBritishColumbia

26 EarlyelectionsinPeru?

26 TheartofCarlos Cruz-Diez

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— Bello is away