BY SOME ESTIMATES, over half of the world’s
economic growth over the last 50 years has
depended on Moore’s Law. What was once
an esoteric observation involving transistor
density in semiconductors is arguably now the
most important economic driving force on the planet. It’s the
technological gift that keeps on giving. More transistors. More
computing performance. For less money. Year after year.
The net result has been unprecedented global economic
growth lasting decades. In other words, Moore’s Law isn’t just
about faster CPUs and GPUs every year or the inevitability that
the PC you buy today will be hopelessly outclassed tomorrow. It’s
about the huge impact that exponential increases in computing
power have had on the way we all live.
At least, that was true for about 40 years following the
inception of Moore’s Law in the mid-1970s. Over the past decade,
however, the assumptions around Moore’s Law have been shaken,
some argue shattered. Certainly, some of the biggest players
in chip production have struggled to maintain the relentless
technological cadence implicit in Moore’s Law. Five or six years
ago, the widespread assumption was that Moore’s Law was well
on its way to becoming as dead as the dodo.
Today, however, it’s a bit more complicated than that. The big
boys in chip production, including Intel, TSMC, and Samsung, all
have aggressive roadmaps involving ever smaller chip nodes that
look conspicuously Moore-ish. TSMC in particular has a recent
track record for actually delivering. So, is Moore’s Law back on
course after a temporary blip? Or are its death throes merely
being dragged out a little longer than expected? Time to find out.MAR 2022 MAXIMU MPC 29
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