The Washington Post - USA (2022-03-01)

TUESDAY, MARCH 1 , 2022. THE WASHINGTON POST EZ RE A

BY SHIBANI MAHTANI

In the weeks following the
Myanmar military’s seizure of
power through a coup, the United
Nations special envoy for the
country warned a top general that
there would be international con-
sequences. He responded defiant-
ly that his military had “learned t o
walk with few friends.”
The generals underestimated
just how few there would be.
More than a year into their
power grab, Myanmar’s military
remains on a quest for interna-
tional legitimacy. It has been hard
to come by. Generals who hoped t o
don suits and sit at international
forums have been largely blocked
— even regionally by the Associa-
tion of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN).
With new sanctions slapped on
Myanmar’s state-owned oil and
gas entity and representatives of
the junta hauled before the Inter-
national Court of Justice to defend
against allegations of genocide,
Myanmar is finding itself overex-
tended, fighting battles on multi-
ple fronts internally and external-
ly.
“There is an element of bravado
when they say they can live with
it,” said Moe Thuzar, co-coordina-
tor of the Myanmar studies pro-
gram at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof
Ishak Institute, who said the jun-
ta’s struggle to assert legitimacy
internationally is adding to the
stress of troops already strained
on the ground by a growing resis-
tance a nd acute revenue challeng-
es. “They miscalculated.”
Myanmar is cementing its pa-
riah status by turning to the very
few friends it has left — notably
Russia, a main source of arms for
the junta since the coup. Russia
has been the junta’s closest diplo-
matic ally since the coup, abstain-
ing from voting to condemn the
coup or from backing an arms
embargo against the Myanmar
military.
A report last week from the U.N.
Special Rapporteur on Myanmar
found that Russia continues to
pledge more arms to Myanmar’s
military since the coup, and Rus-
sian pilots visited counterparts in
Myanmar amid the junta’s in-
creased airstrikes on civilian pop-
ulation.
The junta has, in turn, fully
backed Russia in its invasion

against Ukraine. Military spokes-

man Zaw Min Tun said in an inter-

view that Russia’s actions were

about “protecting its own sover-

eignty” a nd showing r ightly that it

is a “superpower” maintaining

peace in the world.

This month, A SEAN — a r egion-

al bloc known for its principle of

noninterference in its neighbors

affairs no matter how egregious

the situation — b arred Myanmar’s

military-appointed foreign minis-

ter from attending an upcoming

meeting. The bloc argued that

Myanmar failed to make progress

on a plan toward peace, which

includes restarting dialogue with

the ousted democratically elected

government led by Aung San Suu

Kyi.

Suu Kyi remains in detention,

slapped with more than a dozen

charges ranging from corruption

to sedition. She has already been

sentenced to six years in prison

but faces the possibility of over

100 years more. The military ap-

pears to be intent on completely

removing the Nobel laureate, 76,

from politics and public life.

Barring Myanmar’s junta from

representing the nation at its

meetings, including the biannual

leaders summit last year, was an

unprecedented step for the inter-

national organization — the

harshest and most public sanc-

tion toward a member country in

decades. Even with Cambodia as

the organization’s chair this year,

a country known for fraudulent

elections and with an authoritari-

an leader, ASEAN has remained

firm on its position.

Following the regional foreign

ministers’ meeting, ASEAN re-

quested Myanmar facilitate a visit

from t he bloc’s s pecial envoy t o the

country, hoping he could “engage

with all parties concerned.” Some

members of the bloc have gone

further, insisting that talks begin

with the National Unity Govern-

ment, a group made up of mem-

bers of the former elected govern-

ment and junta opponents that

claims legitimate leadership of

the country.

Myanmar has rejected the calls

from its neighbors, branding the

NUG a terrorist group — eroding

prospects of a peaceful diplomatic

solution and ensuring the coun-

try’s further exclusion from re-

gional meetings.

The bloc’s approach has been

“swifter and firmer” than expect-

ed, said Aaron Connelly, a senior

fellow for Southeast A sian politics

at the International Institute for

Strategic Studies in Singapore. He

noted that Min Aung Hlaing,

Myanmar’s commander in chief

who drove the coup, desired the

“pageantry” of occasions like for-

mal state visits, craving the treat-

ment offered to a head of state

rather than just a military com-

mander.

“Min Aung Hlaing uses i nterna-

tional recognition as a way to tell

his people to stop resisting the

coup,” Connell said. “If he’s not

able to do t hat, and if it is known in

Myanmar that he’s n ot welcome in

these forums, i t affects how people

in the country see the viability of

their fight against dictatorship.”

The coup has also exposed

Myanmar’s military at the Inter-

national Court of Justice, where

the junta is defending itself

against allegations of genocide.

The case, brought by the Gambia,

alleges that Myanmar violated the

genocide convention in commit-

ting atrocities against Rohingya

Muslims, more than a million of

whom remain in squalid camps in

Bangladesh after they were driven

from their homes in a scorched

earth operation back in 2017.

Hearings restarted last week after

a long hiatus, and Myanmar put

forth its preliminary objections

against the case.

Suu Kyi represented Myanmar

in the initial hearings in 2019 be-

fore the coup, stunning her West-

ern allies by standing with the

military and offering a stoic de-

fense of the charges.

With Suu Kyi incommunicado,

Myanmar is represented instead

by senior junta ministers includ-

ing the minister of foreign affairs

and the minister of international

cooperation. They appeared at

The Hague, defending their coun-

try using the same arguments that

Suu Kyi had put f orth in 2019: that

the Gambia has no authority to

bring the c ase and t hat the g overn-

ment is working to repatriate the

Rohingya. After the hearings end

on Monday, the ICJ judges have to

decide if the court will take up the

case — a process that could take

months.

Lawyers for the Gambia argued

recently that “now, even more

than before, justice within Myan-

mar is impossible,” using the coup

to argue that there c annot and will

not be any resolution or account-

ability for the R ohingya inside the

country. The risks that the Roh-

ingya face, the lawyers added,

have only intensified since the

coup with armed conflicts raging

all over the country.

The hearings — only the third

genocide case the court has ever

heard — show the military “that

they will get hauled into court to

respond to their actions,” said Aki-

la Radhakrishnan, president of

the Global Justice Center.

“This is a military that has for

decades committed crimes, and

has intensified their crimes,

toward the population at large,”

she said. She and others believe

the case is very likely to go ahead,

particularly without the civilian

government led by Suu Kyi to

protect and shelter the military,

though a resolution could take

years.

Cape Diamond contributed to this

report.

Myanmar’s military seeks legitimacy but is not finding it

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

Burnt buildings in Mingin Township, in Sagaing Division, in Myanmar. More than a year into the military’s power grab, generals who

hoped to sit at international forums have been largely blocked — even regionally by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

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