The Washington Post - USA (2022-03-02)

WEDNESDAY,MARCH 2 , 2022 .THEWASHINGTONPOST EZ SU A25

exports hasmadeitdifficult for

experts to predicthow much

worse the oil shortagecouldbe-

come in the weeksand months

ahead.

Russiaistheworld’s third-larg-

estoil producer.Itexports more

oilthananyothercountry—about

5millionbarrelsadayofcrude—

and accounts for roughly 12 per-

centofglobaltrade. Russia also

exports 2.85 millionbarrelsaday

ofrefinedpetroleumproducts,the

IEA said.Its surplus capacityis

lessthan300,000barrelsaday.

Anotherfactorinthe uncer-

taintyoverthegovernmentoilre-

leases is theresponseofthe Or-

ganization of the Petroleum Ex-

porting Countries Plus(OPEC+),

which meetsWednesday. Found-

ed in 1960, the OPEC cartel has

long been dominatedbythe oil-

richSaudikingdom.Butfiveyears

ago,SaudiArabiadecidedtoforge

OPEC+—analliancewithRussia,

the world’s largestoil exporter,

andotherproducers—inaneffort

to better controloil pricesand

production.

Usingemergencyreservestore-

place Russia’soil exports in the

longtermisnotanoption,indus-

tryanalysts said.But as ashort-

term responsetoinflationary

pressure and rising gasoline pric-

es, it is expected to makeupfor

supplyshortagesandeitherlower

pricesorpreventthemfromsurg-

ing.

DriversandAmericanswhode-

pendonoil to heat their homes

probably won’tfeel the impactof

thecountries’decisionforseveral

weeks. It takes time for refineries

toconvertcrudeoilintogasoline,

diesel fuel andother petroleum

productsandmoretimeforthose

fuels to reach consumers.Inthe

meantime, experts said, it’s likely

that the averagepriceofgasoline

intheU.S.willcontinuetoclimb.

Inthedaysleading

uptoRussia’s

invasionof

Ukraine,Russian

statemedia

unleashedaflurry

ofarticlesonline

baselesslyor

misleadinglycastingUkrainians

asaggressorsandtheir

governmentasanuclearthreat,

accordingtoananalysisshared

withTheTechnology202.

Thefindingsshedlightonthe

narrativesRussianoutfitssought

tospreadinthecrucialdays

beforetheinvasion—andbefore

majorplatformsannouncednew

measuresintendedtolimit

misinformationand

disinformationbystate-funded

outlets.

Accordingtoresearchersat

OxfordUniversity’sProgramon

DemocracyandTechnology,

state-fundedandstate-run

Russiannewsoutletsincluding

RTandSputnikpepperedthe

Webwitharticlesportraying

Ukraineasinstigatorsinthe

conflicttheweekbeforethe

invasion,echoingaconsistent

themeofRussianinformation

operations.

Butwhilecertainnarratives

hadlongbeenafixtureofthe

messagingbyRussianstate

media,othersgainedprominence

duringthatpivotalstretch.That

includedpostingsraisingthe

specteroftheUkrainian

governmentrevivingitsnuclear

arsenal.

“Ithinkthemostseverepiece

ofdisinformationisexpressly

aroundUkraine'snuclear

ambitions,”PhilHoward,a

professorofInternetstudiesat

Oxford,toldme.

Thenarrativeresonatedwith

recentclaimsbyRussian

PresidentVladimirPutinthat

Ukrainewasseekingnuclear

rearmament—chargestheNew

YorkTimes’DavidSangerdubbed

a“conspiracytheory.”

Howardsaidmessaging

castingUkrainianPresident

VolodymyrZelenskyina

disparaginglightalsogained

prominence,markingashiftfrom

apriorfocusinsteadonclaimsof

purportedpoliticalinstabilityin

thecountry.

“Themessaging,particularly

fromRussianstatemedia

sources,wasbroadlyabout

mismanagementinUkraine,or

socialinequalityinUkraine....

Now,it'smuchmorefocusedon...

particularly‘Zelenskyasthe

clown,thebuffoonwho'srunning

hiscountryintotheground.’”

Oxfordresearchersexamined

English-languagearticlesby

Russianstate-mediaoutlets,

amongothers,thatdiscussedkey

wordsrelatedtotheconflictand

thatweresharedonsocialmedia

roughlyduringtheweekbefore

theinvasion.Theythenanalyzed

themostrelevantpieces.

Theanalysisarrivesas

platformslikeFacebookand

YouTubefacemountingpressure

tobanRussianstatemediafrom

theirservicesaltogether,aswe

reportedMonday.

Severalmajortechcompanies

haveannouncedstepsinrecent

daystorestrictaccesstoRussian

state-mediaoutletssuchasRTor

tocutofftheiraccesstodigital

advertising,asmycolleagueCat

ZakrzewskireportedSaturday.

TheactionsshowhowSilicon

Valley’smostpowerfulcompanies

arebeingforcedtomakethorny

callsaboutwhotheywillorwill

notallowontheirservicesamid

theRussianinvasionofUkraine.

Inaseriesofrecentmajor

developments,Facebookparent

companyMeta,YouTubeand

TikTokmovedtobanRussian

statemediaoutletsintheEurope

Union,ElizabethDwoskin,Cat

ZakrzewskiandGerritDeVynck

report.Theannouncementscame

afterEuropeanUnionleaders

announcedplansforsanctions

directlyhittingRussianstate-

mediaoutlets.Thetechcompany

anditspeerscontinuetoface

pressuretobanthepagesentirely,

however,andtolimittheiraccess

intheUnitedStates.

TheU.S.StateDepartmenthas

calledRTandSputnik“critical

elementsinRussia’s

disinformationandpropaganda

ecosystem,”andaslewofrecent

reportsandstudieshave

chronicledhowtheoutletshave

amplifiedRussiangovernment

talkingpointsonUkraine.

Itremainsunclearhow

effectivethatmessaginghasbeen,

however.

“Itisverydifficulttotell,to

measurechangeinpublicopinion

basedonthepresenceofoneof

thesemisinformationstories,”

HowardsaidoftheOxford

analysis.

“But,”headded,“inamoment

ofcrisislikethis,messagingcan

govery,veryfarifit'sconsistent

andhighlightsoneortwothemes,

whichiswhatthey'redoingatthe

moment.”

Days before war, Russian state media

stoked fears of Ukrainian aggression

The

Technology

202

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AKOSSTILLER/BLOOMBERGNEWS

AdisplacedUkrainianholdsasmartphonetoher ear to listen to the speech of UkrainianPresident

Volodymyr Zelenskyatatemporaryshelter in Beregsurany, Hungary, on Monday.

and White House press secretary

JenPsakisuggestedthattheBiden

administration might release

more.

TheUnited States is “prepared

touseeverytoolavailabletousto

limitdisruptiontoglobal energy

supplyasaresult of President

Putin’s actions,”Psaki said. “We

willalso continueour efforts to

acceleratediversificationofen-

ergysuppliesawayfrom Russia

andtosecuretheworldfromMos-

cow’s weaponization of oiland

gas.”

Therelease makesupasmall

percentageofthe nation’s total

strategic reserves, which held

582.4millionbarrelsasofFeb.22.

It marksthe second time the

Bidenadministration has tapped

the reserve in coordinationwith

other countries.The EnergyDe-

partmentreleased50millionbar-

relsofoil from the reservelast

November in an efforttoreduce

globalprices.

Oilindustryanalysts saidit’s

unclearexactlywhateffectthere-

leaseofstockpiledoilwillhaveon

prices.TheU.S.oilpriceroseafter

Tuesday’sannouncement, hitting

aseven-yearhighof$106abarrel.

Uncertaintyover howlong the

warinUkrainewilllastandwhat

effect it will have on Russian oil

Drivers and Americans

who dependon oil to

heat their homes

probablywon’tfeel the

impactof the decision

for severalweeks.

BYANNAPHILLIPS

ANDSTEVENMUFSON

TheUnitedStates and other
world powers have agreedtore-
lease60millionbarrelsofoilfrom
their strategic reserves, amove
intendedtoreducegasolineprices
that have climbed rapidly in re-
centweeks,accordingtotheInter-
nationalEnergyAgency.
Theenergy agency’sgoverning
board released astatement Tues-
dayattributing thedecision to
tight global oilmarkets thathave
become further strainedbyRus-
sia’sinvasion of Ukraine.Al-
though the sanctionsthatcoun-
tries have imposed onRussia in
recent days do notdirectly target
its oil and gas sectors,continued
fightingisexpectedtodisruptsup-
ply routes through Ukraine and
theBlackSea,shrinkingcrudeoil
stocksdramatically.
Withcrude oil prices climbing
to well over$100abarrel —and
withsomeindustryanalysts pre-
dictingpricescouldhit$130—the
energyagencysaid itsintentisto
“send aunified and strong mes-
sagetoglobal oil markets that
there willbenoshortfall in sup-
plies as aresultofRussia’s inva-
sionofUkraine.”
TheIEA release is onlythe
fourth time theinternational or-
ganization has overseen acoordi-
nateddrawdownofreservessince
itwascreatedin1974,whenArab
membersofthe Organization of
the PetroleumExporting Coun-
tries (OPEC) declared anoil em-
bargoaftertheArab-Israeliwar.In
its announcement Tuesday, the
IEAsaiditsinitialreleaseisequiv-
alentto2millionbarrelsadayfor
30days.
“I am pleasedthatthe IEA has
alsocome together todaytotake
action. Thesituation in energy
markets is very serious and de-
mandsourfullattention,”IEAEx-
ecutive Director Fatih Birolsaid.
“Global energysecurity is under
threat,puttingtheworldeconomy
atriskduringafragilestageofthe
recovery.”
TheU.S.EnergyDepartment
planstorelease30millionbarrels
ofoilfromtheStrategicPetroleum
Reserve, one of the most aggres-
sivestepsavailable to theWhite
House as it tries to reducefuel
costs for consumers. In separate
statementsissuedTuesday,En-
ergySecretaryJenniferGranholm

U.S., other nations tap oil reserves

in response to high prices, invasion

BLOOMBERGNEWS

Russiais theworld’s leading oilexporter,and its invasionof

Ukrainecauses uncertaintyabout furthershortages, analysts say.

InternationalEnergy

Agencysends‘unified

and strongmessage’