12 MAY m
A
utomotive news seems to happen
every day. It is worth reviewing these
stories to see which way the automotive
wind is blowing, however, because
we acknowledge that the health of many of our
businesses rises and falls (at least to some extent)
on the trends in the automotive industry.Future Predictions
Tw o forecasts – NADA and IHS – predict
vehicle sales of about 16.9 million in 2015. This
is an increase of about 500,000 from 2014. IHS
Automotive also predicts global automotive sales
of 88.6 million in 2015, an increase of 2.4% over- In Canada, light-vehicle sales set an annual
record in 2014, which is expected to be broken
this year. It ’s predicted that North American
vehicle production will rise steadily through 2022.
Manufacturer Trends
Looking at that 2022 time frame, it ’s predicted
that GM, Ford and Fiat Chrysler will be number
1, 2 and 3. Rounding out North A merica’s top-
in 2022 will be To y o t a , Honda, Renault-Nissan,
Hyundai-Kia, Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes.
To y o t a is currently the world’s top automaker.
To y o t a posted early-year sales gains of 12-13%,
with their luxury division, Lexus, posting a 22%
increase in Febr ua r y. Similarly, although smaller
than To y o t a , Nissan reported gains and set a
Februar y record. Their luxury brand, Infinity,
increased almost 20% YOY in Febr ua r y.
Vol v o announced plans to build its first factory
in the U.S., nearly 60 years after it began selling
cars here. It will be Vol v o’s fifth factor y, and the
investment will be about $500 million. A location
has not yet been announced. Last year, Vol v o broke
its previous sales record from 2 0 0 7.
Luxury brands have been the biggest gainers
in the past five years with sales increasing 154%
compared to a 36% gain in
the general auto market.
Possibly spurred on by
these gains, the luxury
brands showed off
diverse lineups at the
Geneva International
Motor Show. Bentley displayed a small
sports car, Aston Martin promised an SUV andKoenigsegg (a Swedish company) introduced a
sports car that will cost $1.9 million.
Here at home, a new U.S. manufacturer, VL
Automotive, is beginning production of the VL
Destino. It is basically the Fisker Karma without
the batteries and electrical system. Instead, it is
powered by a 630-hp Corvette ZR-1 supercharged
V-8 with a GM six-speed automatic transaxle.
The price will be in the $200,000 neighborhood.Fueling the Growth
In spite of lower oil prices, GM plans to move
forward with its plans to expand its electrified-
vehicle strategy. GM is committed to building the
Bolt for 2 017, which has a 200-mile range. They
will also be making a 2016 Chevy Malibu Hybrid,
which will use powertrain components from the
Volt to achieve a combined 45 mpg.
Vol k s w a g en plans to launch a new electric vehicle
in the U.S. around 2018. It ’s reported that VW is
giving serious thought to innovating solid-state bat-
tery technolog y. It is anticipated that VW will decide
the future of its battery investments by summer.
Nissan recently delivered their 75,000th all-
electric L E A F. The LEAF has a driving range of
about 84 miles.
A new report indicates that worldwide sales
of natural-gas vehicles are expected to total 37. 2
million in the decade ending in 2024.Technology Trends
High-tech collision-avoidance systems are making
our cars safer. The technology that seems to be
getting a lot of recent press is autonomous-driving
vehicles. Vol v o recently announced that it had
completed designs for self-driving cars that it
plans to put on the road in two years. Vol v o is
challenging Nissan and Google to be the first to
put fully automated cars into circulation.
As I write, a self-driving car is making a trip
from California to New York. While three people
will be riding in the modified Audi, no one will
be driving for a majority of the time. The car
utilizes Delphi ’s self-driving technolog y, which
includes about 20 sensing systems.
It ’s anticipated that the first real-world
application of this technology will be vehicles that
can drop you at the door, park themselves and
return to pick you up. The future is now!Automotive News
REED MILLER
Associate Publisher/Editor
412-306-
[email protected]EDITOR'S PA G E