CP

(National Geographic (Little) Kids) #1
we can easily use this equation to find a stock’s intrinsic value for any pattern of divi-
dends. In practice, the hard part is getting an accurate forecast of the future dividends.
However, in many cases, the stream of dividends is expected to grow at a constant rate.
If this is the case, Equation 5-1 may be rewritten as follows:^8

(5-2)

The last term of Equation 5-2 is called the constant growth model,or the Gordon
modelafter Myron J. Gordon, who did much to develop and popularize it.
Note that a necessary condition for the derivation of Equation 5-2 is that rsbe
greater than g. Look back at the second form of Equation 5-2. If g is larger than rs,
then (1 g)t/(1 rs)tmust always be greater than one. In this case, the second line of
Equation 5-2 is the sum of an infinite number of terms, with each term being a num-
ber larger than one. Therefore, if the constant g were greater than rs, the resulting
stock price would be infinite! Since no company is worth an infinite price, it is impos-
sible to have a constant growth rate that is greater than rs. So, if you try to use the con-
stant growth model in a situation where g is greater than rs, you will violate laws of economics
and mathematics, and your results will be both wrong and meaningless.

Illustration of a Constant Growth Stock

Assume that MicroDrive just paid a dividend of $1.15 (that is, D 0 $1.15). Its stock
has a required rate of return, rs, of 13.4 percent, and investors expect the dividend to
grow at a constant 8 percent rate in the future. The estimated dividend one year hence
would be D 1 $1.15(1.08) $1.24; D 2 would be $1.34; and the estimated dividend
five years hence would be $1.69:
DtD 0 (1 g)t$1.15(1.08)^5 $1.69.
We could use this procedure to estimate each future dividend, and then use Equation
5-1 to determine the current stock value,Pˆ 0. In other words, we could find each ex-
pected future dividend, calculate its present value, and then sum all the present values
to find the intrinsic value of the stock.
Such a process would be time consuming, but we can take a short cut—just insert
the illustrative data into Equation 5-2 to find the stock’s intrinsic value, $23:

.

The concept underlying the valuation process for a constant growth stock is
graphed in Figure 5-1. Dividends are growing at the rate g8%, but because rs
g, the present value of each future dividend is declining. For example, the dividend
in Year 1 is D 1 D 0 (1g)^1 $1.15(1.08)$1.242. However, the present value of
this dividend, discounted at 13.4 percent, is PV(D 1 )$1.242/(1.134)^1 $1.095.

Pˆ 0  $1.15(1.08)
0.1340.08



$1.242
0.054

$23.00



D 0 (1g)
rsg



D 1
rsg

.

D (^0) a

t 1
(1g)t
(1rs)t

0 
D 0 (1g)^1
(1rs)^1

D 0 (1g)^2
(1rs)^2

D 0 (1g)
(1rs)
Constant Growth Stocks 197
(^8) The last term in Equation 5-2 is derived in the Extensions to Chapter 5 of Eugene F. Brigham and
Phillip R. Daves, Intermediate Financial Management,7th ed. (Fort Worth, TX: Harcourt College Publish-
ers, 2002). In essence, Equation 5-2 is the sum of a geometric progression, and the final result is the
solution value of the progression.


Stocks and Their Valuation 193
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