The career novelist

Numbers, numbers, numbers

public, maybe even face out. And do not be mistaken: publishers
take this contest for space very seriously.
Luckily for forecasters like me, publishing changes. One shift we
are undergoing right now is a stabilization of the number of titles
being published annually. It was 55,000 or so in 1990, sank to 44,000
or so in 1992, and has risen again to 50,000 or so, where the num-
ber seems to be holding steady (for now). Meanwhile, publishers
are trying to control costs. They are printing fewer books, hoping to
match supply more closely to demand.
On-demand printing is in the future, too. Will this new efficiency
mean less competition for shelf space, or a longer shelf life for
books? Probably not. Like lettuce, books will always be perishable;
efficient use of bookstore shelves is here to stay.
Because of that concern, I believe that publishers and book-
sellers alike will continue to look at the way that shelf space is allo-
cated. New patterns will be tried. Indeed, the superstores are
already stocking deep; that is, putting more emphasis on backlist
and less on frontlist. (Well, somewhat less.)
The old days, when publishers would stuff stores with thousands
of decorative copies of a book, are gone. No more will we see fifty
copies of an author's new novel, but none of his backlist. Today,
every inch counts. The current trend seems to be stocking more
titles, but fewer of them. Backlist is your friend.
So, to my prediction: if this trend continues, the next significant
number will not be a different form of sales, profit, returns, sell-
through, or rates. I forecast that the next important number will be
the number of titles an author has in print.
Think about it: with twenty novels on the shelf, half of which may
not sell, the efficiency quotient is low. But with four copies each of
five backlist novels stocked on shelves, all selling at a rate better
than 50 percent... well, that means more profits.
Now, don't think too hard. If you do, you will notice that there is
a very big if in the middle of my forecast: if those novels are selling!
That in turn presupposes that authors will be writing book after
book that their fans will want to read. That, friends, is a factor that
only authors can control.
Aren't numbers fun?