The career novelist

THE CAREER NOVELIST

In short, are there strategies for surviving storms in the econo-

my?

STORM WARNINGS
As a career novelist you may feel that you are being mercilessly
tossed on the economic seas, but luckily it is possible to foresee and
prepare for both ups and downs in the business. In September,
1992, I attended a lecture given by James W. Haughey of Cahners
Economics called "The Economic Context of Publishing." I am
indebted to him for much of what follows. (Of course, any errors or
misleading suggestions are mine alone.)
First, good news on the current weather: we are out of the reces-
sion of the early nineties, and although a slowdown may arrive from
time to time, the outlook for most of the decade is mildly sunny. The
government's index of leading indicators may swing up or down, but
generally the trend is up. We are in a period of slow growth.
If you want to become an economy watcher, here are some indica-
tors to follow: investment in manufacturing, overtime hours and new
unemployment insurance claims, export levels, manufacturing out-
put and orders, and department store sales. When we are emerging
from a recession, rises in those indexes are early signs of recovery.
Another big indicator to track is consumer confidence. Books are
impulse purchases, and those are made when people feel good
about their financial prospects and future. A rise in confidence usu-
ally follows a rise in employment. When folks get jobs, they buy
books; when they get fired, they economize.
Still another indicator to watch is holiday sales. Publishing
does 25 percent of its business in the period between Thanks-
giving and Christmas. Strong holiday sales bode well for the next
year. Weak holiday sales mean publishers (and, later, authors) will
feel the pinch.
As I said, the long-term outlook for the nineties is not too bad. It
will not be like the boom of the eighties, but growing exports and a
steady dollar all augur well for the U.S. economy. Stock prices, espe-
cially in the technology sector, are on a roll, too. The GNP is likely
to swerve up and down in short, shallow cycles, but the general
trend is upward.