THE CAREER NOVELIST
back until new plant capacity comes on-line late in the decade. That
is squeezing publishers' profit margins pretty badly. It is also forc-
ing up cover prices, which is not good on the consumer front, espe-
cially on the paperback side.
Hardcover sales are not being hit quite so hard, though. The
Book Industry Study Group reports that in 1985 the total of all
domestic hardcover sales to consumers was $1,791.4 million; the
1990 figure was $2,921.1 million. The figure for 1995 is likely to
have been $4,553.1 million, more than double the level of a
decade ago.
Not bad. A similar rise is in the cards for trade paperbacks. In
1985 they racked up sales of $1079.8 million. In 1990, the figure
went to $1,855.7 million. For 1995? $2,915.4 million. Nice. Actually,
mass-market paperback sales are not really awful, either. For the
same period their numbers go from $1,244.5 to $1,775.4 to
$2,452.9.
LET'S GO TO THE FORECAST
Okay, what does all this mean for you, the career novelist? How can
you, too, forecast the economic weather? Watch employment and
consumer-confidence figures. When the monthly employment
figure gains by 100,000 a month or more, book sales are likely to go
up. When new unemployment claims are rising by more than
100,000 a month, though, that is bad news for books.
The aforementioned consumer-confidence index is also worth
watching. So are figures on retail orders, shipments, and invento-
ries, especially inventory restocking. When warehouses are filling,
that means managers are looking for higher sales.
On the downswing, remember too that when the next recession
hits you will not feel it right away. Consumer nondurable spending
can grow even while the underlying economy is eroding. As winter
approaches, publishers' lists are likely to swell, too. So watch out:
when publishers go on a pointless buying binge, and advances go
through the roof for no good reason, that may be a sign that an
industry downturn is on the way.
When that happens, it is time to prepare for winter. Actually, this
is something a smart career novelist will do all along. How? By