Apendix 3: Measuring, Monitoring, and Forecasting Progress
toward Sustainability
Authors:
Noel Cressie (The Ohio State University)
Jennifer A. Hoeting (Colorado State University)
Subhash Lele (University of Alberta)
Ronald McRoberts (U.S. Forest Service)
Kiona Ogle (Arizona State University)
Richard Smith (SAMSI)
Len Stefanski (North Carolina State University)
Guy Ziv (Princeton University)
Charge to the Group:
Development of a science of measuring and monitoring for sustainability is essential for
guiding policies and evaluating progress towards improved human well-being and
sustenance of the earth's life support systems. Under this theme, the group is asked to
identify the major priority areas (research themes) in the mathematical sciences for
development of a science of sustainability monitoring and measuring that builds on but
goes beyond contemporary approaches. As part of this theme, the group is asked to
explore a conceptual and methodological framework for sustainability measuring and
monitoring that confronts inherent issues of scale, aggregation problems and the need to
develop common metrics for sustainability. Specifically, the group is asked to answer the
questions: What are the critical mathematical sciences research developments
necessary for sustainability monitoring and measuring? Why are these important? And,
are they feasible?
- Introduction
Measuring, monitoring and forecasting play a fundamental role in assessing
progress and evaluating policies for the sustainability of both human well-being and
natural resources. These objectives will involve observational data from the human and
natural environment, as well as the effective development and application of
computational models. The charge to our working group was to identify the contributions
of mathematical scientists towards the fundamental research that is needed to develop
effective tools, and the additional resources, including those involving data and
computing, that are needed to bring these tools to effective application.
There are many elements of sustainability to consider including water, air,
agriculture, energy, humans, natural resources, and many more. A common theme in
sustainability is the monitoring of these systems. This can be done via direct data
observation and/or via modeling of processes. In either case, data are acquired and
models are used. Thus, models and data are the key building blocks of the sciences of
sustainability. - Research themes/questions
First, we consider, what should be measured or monitored. Here, we give three
examples to show the challenges of setting up a data monitoring system. Second, we