Microsoft Word - SustainabilityReport_BCC.doc

CHAPTER 1

Human Well-being and the Natural Environment

Humans depend on the resources of the natural environment. This

chapter lays out the mathematical sciences methods needed to help

assess whether our use of environmental resources is sustainable, to

protect humans from the consequences of environmental change, and to

meet human needs while limiting environmental damage.

A hurricane picks up speed and force as it passes the Carolinas.

Hurricanes in that region are notoriously unpredictable, but it appears to be

headed straight for Manhattan. Officials order an evacuation, and bridges,

highways, and trains clog. Although it’s hours before the storm hits – if it hits at

all – flooding has already begun, and subways are getting inundated. There

simply isn’t enough time to get everyone out.

History gives a hint of the damage to come. In 1821, a much smaller storm

raised the tide 13 feet in an hour, causing the flooded East and Hudson rivers to

swamp lower Manhattan all the way to Canal Street. Blessedly few people died –

but that was only because the storm landed at low tide and lower Manhattan was

much less populated than it is now. In 1938, a hurricane killed around 700 people

in Long Island, NY and areas of New England.

The next hurricane, though, could be far worse. As the climate changes,

development increases, and ecosystems become more fragile, hurricanes could

become more frequent and intense in years to come – along with wildfires,

tsunamis, floods and heat waves.

And this is one of the worst possible disasters. The New York harbor

forms a funnel for the incoming storm surge, and with nowhere else to go, the

water could be pushed 30 feet high. All three airports would end up underwater.

The damage could keep the port of New York and the New York Stock Exchange

closed for weeks, causing global economic havoc.