Figure 3: Currently, about 1,200 malaria cases are reported each year in the United
States, almost all in people who were infected in other parts of the world. But small
outbreaks of malaria have occurred within the U.S. when imported cases have been
transmitted to others. So far, the outbreaks have been quickly and easily contained, but
the potential exists for malaria to re-emerge as a native disease throughout much of the
U.S. Credit: CDC.Another effort being pursued now is to develop models to guide triagedecisions. Ordinarily, the sickest patients are treated first, while those who can
wait without getting much worse do so. In the midst of a crisis like a major
earthquake or an epidemic outbreak, however, medical resources may be
insufficient to treat everyone, and more people will benefit if resources are
allocated first to those who can best make use of them. At the moment, nurses
may have to make a gut decision about when to switch protocols. A
mathematical model could provide guidance to help make a more informed
decision.
Epidemiological models like these are developed enough to have proventheir worth, but much work remains to be done, and we have to be especially
vigilant to make sure that we are not just solving interesting mathematical
problems whose solution will have no useful connection to true public health.
Agent-based models are one promising approach, for example. They create
individuals inside the computer and model their movement along with the