of diseases, with malaria a leading example. Five hundred million malaria cases occur
every year and some scientists predict that, as a result of climate change in the coming
decades, tens -- even hundreds -- of millions more cases will occur in regions where the
disease is already present, and that transmission will extend to higher latitudes and
altitudes. Such predictions, sometimes supported by simple (mathematical) models, are
persuasive because they are intuitive, but they sidestep factors that are key to the
transmission and epidemiology of the disease: the ecology and behavior of both humans
and vectors, and the immunity of the human population. Malaria is not the only disease
so affected. The report "Climate Change and Human Health, Risks and Responses"
(eds. A. J. McMichael et al., published by WHO in Geneva 2003) provides a very broad
scenario of diseases that may become exacerbated by climate change. No mathematical
models are described, but some can be found in the references. This is an area that can
benefit from new mathematical sciences research.
The importance of the world's forests on human health cannot be overstated. It is
essential for us to develop models that articulate the dynamics of the physical and
ecological phenomena that shape our forests, how these processes interact, and how
they are affected by and affect humans. The need to understand these processes will
grow in importance as climate change influences forests, the way they are managed,
and the increasingly important need for sustainable forest practices (Flannigan et al.
2005; Westerling et al. 2006; Woolford et al. 2010). The interplay and feedback
mechanisms between climate and forest need greater consideration. For example, we
need to precisely model the effects of climate change on onset of fire seasons, length of
fire seasons, and frequency of extreme fire events, as well as the changing range and
abundance of severe destructive forest pests such as the pine beetle. The interplay
between fire, climate and pests, and the aggregate effects of fire, climate, pests, and
other factors on total forest area involve complex feedback processes, and they are
closely related to human well-being through the effect of changing forest composition on
sustainable timber supply and also the spread of disease that is exacerbated or
influenced by forest conditions. Understanding this complex web of feedback
encompasses modeling of both physical and ecological processes such as fire spread
and the spread of infection, and incorporates research tools such as differential
equations and spatial statistics methodologies to address key forest dynamic issues.
Water pollution from human activities, either industrial or domestic, is a major health
problem in many countries. Mathematical analysis of water-quality problems dates back
at least to the 1920's. A recent article by Pimpunchat et al. (2007) investigates the
alleviation of pollution by aeration within a flowing river contaminated by distributed
sources and the associated depletion of dissolved oxygen. The question of how to
reduce water pollution by economic stimulation was investigated in Rikun (1992). This
paper considers a scheme of economic stimulation in which payment for water pollution
is partially used to compensate for expenses for water conservation measures. A
mathematical model is used to determine stimulation parameters, when potential
polluters are interested in the decrease of discharged waste-water volume to an
optimum level. However, there is much embedded uncertainty requiring identification of
different mathematical models of water quality and their applications to problems of
prediction. This reflects a major mathematical challenge in sustainability science:
uncertainty quantification and how to make optimal decisions under uncertainty.
barry
(Barry)
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